NBA Considers Flattening Draft Lottery Odds to Curb Tanking

League reportedly eyeing expansion of lottery to 18 teams with equal odds for bottom 10 squads

Apr. 8, 2026 at 7:56pm

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A cubist, geometric painting depicting an abstract NBA draft lottery scene, with overlapping shapes and planes in muted tones of navy, green, and burgundy, conceptually representing the league's efforts to reform its lottery system.The NBA's proposed changes to the draft lottery system aim to discourage tanking, but could have unintended consequences for struggling franchises.Chicago Today

The NBA is exploring changes to its draft lottery system in an effort to discourage teams from intentionally losing games to improve their draft position. According to reports, the proposal with the most momentum would expand the lottery to 18 teams, with the bottom 10 non-playoff teams all receiving an equal 8% chance at the top pick, while the remaining 20% of lottery odds would be split among the Play-In tournament qualifiers.

Why it matters

Tanking has become a major issue in the NBA, with several teams openly prioritizing draft position over competitiveness in recent seasons. The league is hoping these proposed lottery reforms will reduce the incentive for teams to deliberately lose games, though the changes could have unintended consequences like prolonged periods of futility for the league's worst franchises.

The details

The NBA's proposed lottery reform would see the number of teams participating in the draft lottery expand from 14 to 18. The bottom 10 teams that miss the Play-In tournament would all receive an equal 8% chance at the top pick, while the remaining 20% of lottery odds would be split among the 8 Play-In qualifiers. The league is also considering tiering the odds, potentially giving the bottom 5 teams better odds than teams ranked 6-10.

  • The NBA Board of Governors is expected to vote on the proposed lottery changes on May 28, 2026.

The players

Shams Charania

NBA reporter for ESPN who has been covering the league's discussions around anti-tanking measures.

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What they’re saying

“Everyone's trying to figure out what the solution to this is. There was a GM call on Tuesday night where they're all continuing the conversation on this. The prospect concept with the most momentum right now — we reported on three different proposals — the one with the most momentum is option one, that's the one with the flattened odds.”

— Shams Charania, NBA Reporter

What’s next

The NBA Board of Governors is expected to vote on the proposed lottery changes on May 28, 2026.

The takeaway

The NBA's efforts to curb tanking through draft lottery reform highlight the league's ongoing struggle to balance competitive balance with the desire of struggling teams to rebuild through the draft. While flattening the lottery odds could reduce the incentive to lose, it may also lead to prolonged periods of futility for the league's worst franchises.