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Airline and Travel Industries See No Immediate Relief From Iran Ceasefire
Refinery damage may delay jet fuel supply recovery, says IATA chief Walsh
Apr. 8, 2026 at 3:07pm
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The global aviation industry is unlikely to see immediate relief from the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, as jet fuel supply disruptions and refinery damage in the Middle East will take months to recover, according to industry executives. Delta Air Lines forecast $2 billion in extra fuel costs for the second quarter, while airline and travel stocks rallied on hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Why it matters
The Iran conflict has severely impacted the airline and travel industries, with jet fuel prices more than doubling since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. This has led to increased costs, disrupted schedules, route cuts, and higher fares for travelers. The recovery of these industries will depend on how quickly the Middle East's refining capacity and jet fuel supply can be restored.
The details
IATA director general Willie Walsh warned that it would take months for jet fuel supply to recover even if the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, due to disruptions to Middle East refining capacity. Delta Air Lines forecast $2 billion in extra fuel costs for the second quarter and said it would cut capacity to make up for the increased expenses. Airline and travel stocks rallied on the ceasefire news, but industry experts say the tourism industry's recovery could take at least seven months.
- The Iran conflict has choked global jet fuel supplies since the U.S.-Israeli strikes.
- Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran on April 8, 2026.
- Delta expects to pay $4.30 per gallon for jet fuel in the June 2026 quarter.
The players
Willie Walsh
Director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Delta Air Lines
A major U.S. airline that expects to incur $2 billion in extra fuel costs in the second quarter of 2026.
TUI
A European travel operator that has two cruise ships stranded in the Middle East due to the conflict.
What they’re saying
“If it were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East.”
— Willie Walsh, Director general, International Air Transport Association (IATA)
“You basically have a tail of around seven months post ceasefire of sentiment impact, with the perception of safety coming back quite gradually.”
— Aaron Goldring, Economist, Oxford Economics
What’s next
The airline and travel industries will continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East and assess the timeline for jet fuel supply recovery. Carriers will likely maintain capacity cuts and fare hikes until the refining disruption is resolved.
The takeaway
The Iran conflict has dealt a severe blow to the global airline and travel sectors, with jet fuel prices more than doubling and causing significant operational and financial challenges. Even with a ceasefire, the recovery of these industries will be gradual and dependent on the restoration of Middle East refining capacity, which could take months.
