Cubs Lose No-Hitter After Outfielder's Costly Drop

Michael Conforto's 99% catch probability miss was the only hit in the Cubs' 1-0 win over the Guardians.

Apr. 5, 2026 at 11:09pm

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The Chicago Cubs were on the verge of throwing baseball's first no-hitter of the 2026 season, but a costly drop by outfielder Michael Conforto in the sixth inning allowed the Cleveland Guardians to record their only hit of the game. Despite winning 1-0, the Cubs were denied a historic no-hit bid due to Conforto's misjudged fly ball that had a 99% catch probability.

Why it matters

No-hitters are rare and significant achievements in baseball, so the Cubs' near-miss is a heartbreaking moment for the team and its fans. Conforto's drop highlights the fine margins and unpredictable nature of baseball, where even a play with a 99% chance of success can slip away and deny a team a place in the record books.

The details

In the sixth inning of the Cubs' 1-0 win over the Guardians, Cleveland's only hit of the game came on a fly ball that Conforto misjudged and failed to catch. The Statcast data showed the ball had a 99% catch probability, meaning it should have been an easy out. However, Conforto was unable to make the play, denying the Cubs what would have been the first no-hitter of the 2026 MLB season.

  • The incident occurred in the sixth inning of the Cubs-Guardians game on April 5, 2026.

The players

Michael Conforto

An outfielder for the Cleveland Guardians who failed to catch a fly ball that had a 99% catch probability, allowing the Guardians to record their only hit of the game against the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs

The MLB team that was on the verge of throwing a no-hitter before Conforto's drop, ultimately winning the game 1-0.

Cleveland Guardians

The opposing team that recorded their only hit of the game due to Conforto's missed catch, preventing the Cubs from throwing a no-hitter.

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What they’re saying

“Catch probability initially 99% on this one, BTW. It may update later but doubt it goes far. Tough way to lose a no-no.”

— The WARmonger

The takeaway

This near-miss no-hitter highlights the fine margins and unpredictable nature of baseball, where even a play with a 99% chance of success can slip away and deny a team a historic achievement. The Cubs' heartbreak serves as a reminder that no-hitters are rare and significant feats, and that even the smallest mistakes can have outsized consequences in the game.