Stock Index Futures Rally on Prospect of End to Middle East Conflict

U.S. Economic Data and Fed Speak Also in Focus

Mar. 31, 2026 at 10:36am

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An extreme close-up of interlocking metal gears and machinery, conceptually representing the complex financial systems and infrastructure that underpin global markets.As tensions over the Middle East conflict escalate, the markets remain volatile and investors closely watch for signs of economic fallout.Chicago Today

Stock index futures are up this morning as sentiment got a boost after reports that President Trump is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran. Investors are also awaiting new economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Why it matters

The prospect of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict could ease concerns about supply chain disruptions and higher energy prices, which have been weighing on the markets. However, the situation remains fluid and any further escalation could rattle investor confidence.

The details

June S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are up as the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Treasury yields fell following the report, but oil prices rose as hostilities in the Middle East continued. Investors are also awaiting a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, including jobs openings, consumer confidence, and regional manufacturing figures. Fed officials are also scheduled to make public comments today.

  • The Wall Street Journal reported on President Trump's comments on Monday.
  • U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data will be released later today.
  • The U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will also be reported today.
  • The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. and Chicago PMI will be released today as well.
  • Several Fed officials, including Vice Chair Bowman, Governor Barr, and regional presidents, will make public remarks today.

The players

President Trump

The President of the United States who reportedly indicated he was willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran.

Jerome Powell

The Chair of the Federal Reserve who said longer-term inflation expectations seem to be in check, but the central bank is closely monitoring them.

Krishna Guha

An analyst at Evercore who said the probability of one or more Fed rate cuts is much higher than the probability of a hike.

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What they’re saying

“Fed Chair Powell's calm tone, along with overdue market focus on the growth risks from higher-for-longer oil are helping to fuel a turn in rates pricing.”

— Krishna Guha, Analyst

“The probability of one or more cuts is much higher than the probability of a hike.”

— Krishna Guha, Analyst

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.