Robbery Clearance Rates Surge to Highest Levels in Decades

New data shows a sharp rise in the percentage of robberies solved by police, bucking a long-term trend of declining clearance rates.

Mar. 31, 2026 at 2:25am

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An extreme close-up photograph of a shattered car window or damaged sensor, lit by a harsh, direct camera flash against a pitch-black background, conceptually illustrating the investigation into a rise in solved robbery cases.A surge in solved robbery cases hints at a potential shift in police effectiveness, though experts caution the data remains preliminary.Chicago Today

According to preliminary data, the national clearance rate for robberies in 2025 is likely to be the highest since the 1960s, reaching nearly 36%. This marks a significant turnaround after years of falling arrests and unsolved crimes. While clearance rates for most crime types have returned to historical norms after dipping in 2020-2021, robberies are far exceeding previous levels.

Why it matters

The surge in robbery clearance rates could signal a shift in police effectiveness and accountability, potentially helping to restore public trust in law enforcement. However, experts caution that the data is still preliminary and may not be representative of national trends, as it is based on monitoring urban police dashboards rather than official FBI statistics.

The details

The data, compiled by crime analyst Jeff Asher, shows that as of now, nearly 36% of robberies reported to the FBI in 2025 have been cleared. If this holds true, it would be the highest national clearance rate for robberies since 1965. In contrast, clearance rates for most other crime types fell sharply in 2020 and 2021 but have since returned to their historical norms. Robberies, however, are far exceeding previous clearance levels.

  • The 2025 police data is very preliminary and will not be fully counted until the late summer of 2026.
  • Asher's data comes from monitoring urban public police dashboards, so it may not be representative of national police statistics.

The players

Jeff Asher

A crime analyst who compiled the data on rising robbery clearance rates from monitoring urban police dashboards.

FBI

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, which collects and reports national crime data through its Uniform Crime Reporting program.

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What’s next

The FBI's official 2025 crime data will be released in the late summer of 2026, providing a more comprehensive and nationally representative picture of clearance rates and crime trends.

The takeaway

The potential rise in robbery clearance rates, if confirmed by official data, could signal a turning point in police effectiveness and accountability, potentially helping to restore public trust in law enforcement. However, experts caution that the preliminary nature of the data means the full picture remains unclear.