MLB Home Run Predictions: Top HR Prop Bets for Monday

Targeting Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto as top home run picks

Mar. 30, 2026 at 2:14pm

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A fragmented, geometric painting depicting a baseball game, with sharp planes of color representing the uniforms of the Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, capturing the raw energy and potential of two Japanese power hitters.The explosive power of two rising Japanese sluggers is captured in a cubist-inspired illustration, hinting at the value in their underpriced home run odds.Chicago Today

With the 2026 MLB season just underway, two newcomers from Japan's NPB league are already emerging as daily home run threats. Bettors can find value in player prop bets targeting Munetaka Murakami of the Chicago White Sox and Kazuma Okamoto of the Toronto Blue Jays, who are facing favorable matchups on Monday, March 30.

Why it matters

The MLB player props market has been slow to adjust to the influx of new NPB talent, providing an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on underpriced home run odds for these rising sluggers before the books catch up.

The details

Murakami has gone deep in every game this season for the White Sox, and his move up to the second spot in the lineup gives him more plate appearances to do damage against Miami's Chris Paddack, who allowed the fourth-most homers in baseball last year. Okamoto, batting fifth for the Blue Jays, faces Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, who ranked in the bottom 6% of the league in strikeout rate and Barrel% in 2025, making him vulnerable to the long ball in a hitter-friendly Coors Field matchup.

  • The White Sox vs. Marlins game starts at 6:40 p.m. ET on Monday, March 30.
  • The Blue Jays vs. Rockies game starts at 7:07 p.m. ET on Monday, March 30.

The players

Munetaka Murakami

A Japanese left-handed slugger who has hit a home run in every game so far this season for the Chicago White Sox.

Kazuma Okamoto

A Japanese power hitter who plays for the Toronto Blue Jays and is facing a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies on Monday.

Chris Paddack

The Miami Marlins starting pitcher, who allowed the fourth-most home runs in baseball last season.

Tomoyuki Sugano

The Colorado Rockies starting pitcher, who ranked in the bottom 6% of the league in strikeout rate and Barrel% in 2025, making him vulnerable to the long ball.

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What they’re saying

“Pricing on NPB-to-MLB players can be slow to catch up, and we're finding great value in both Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto to go deep today.”

— Josh Inglis

What’s next

As the season progresses, it will be important to monitor how the MLB player props market adjusts to the influx of new NPB talent, as the current underpricing of home run odds for Murakami and Okamoto may not last.

The takeaway

The early-season lag in pricing for NPB-to-MLB players presents a valuable opportunity for bettors to capitalize on undervalued home run props, especially for rising sluggers like Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto who are facing favorable matchups.