Commodity Markets Volatile Amid Iran Conflict and Fertilizer Concerns

Crude oil spikes, grains rally, and cattle market holds up despite market turmoil

Mar. 14, 2026 at 4:21pm

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The commodity markets have experienced significant volatility this week, with crude oil prices spiking to historic highs on Sunday evening before collapsing, and grains rallying alongside the oil surge. The conflict with Iran and its impact on global oil flows, as well as concerns over elevated fertilizer prices, have been major drivers of the market turbulence. Despite the volatility, the cattle market has held up relatively well, though it faces headwinds from a large cattle run and the potential JBS Greeley plant strike. Looking ahead, the markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week and the upcoming USDA Planting Intentions report.

Why it matters

The volatility in the commodity markets, particularly in crude oil and grains, has far-reaching implications. Higher energy and fertilizer prices could significantly impact agricultural production costs and farmer margins, potentially leading to changes in crop planting decisions. The situation also highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, the strength of the cattle market in the face of these challenges suggests resilience in the sector, but also raises questions about how long it can hold up.

The details

Crude oil prices saw a historic spike on Sunday evening, with April WTI futures trading as high as $119.48 per barrel before collapsing to $81.19 in the same session, a daily range of $38.29. This volatility was driven by concerns over the conflict with Iran and its potential impact on global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. announced plans to release oil from strategic reserves, but prices have continued to creep higher. The grain markets also rallied alongside the oil surge, with corn and wheat futures making new highs during the week. However, the markets have experienced significant choppiness, with futures contracts finishing the week off their highs. Concerns over the impact of the conflict on fertilizer prices, as well as the potential for changes in crop planting decisions, have added to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cattle market has held up relatively well, despite the volatility in other markets and the potential JBS Greeley plant strike scheduled for next Monday.

  • On Sunday evening, April WTI crude oil futures spiked to a high of $119.48 per barrel.
  • On Monday, April WTI crude oil futures collapsed to a low of $81.19 per barrel, a daily range of $38.29.
  • The International Energy Agency and the U.S. announced plans to release oil from strategic reserves this week.
  • The USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports were released on Tuesday.
  • The Federal Reserve FOMC is scheduled to make its interest rate decision on March 18th.

The players

International Energy Agency

A global organization that coordinates energy policies and emergency response measures, including the decision to release oil from strategic reserves this week.

U.S. Government

Announced plans to release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves next week in an effort to ease oil prices.

JBS Greeley

A major beef processing plant that has been shut down this week ahead of a scheduled strike by workers on Monday.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.