Oscars Race Heats Up as 'One Battle' and 'Sinners' Battle for Best Picture

The race for the Best Picture Oscar has taken an unexpected turn as 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' go head-to-head.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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The 2026 Oscar race has taken an unexpected turn, with Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' and Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' emerging as the top contenders for Best Picture. After 'One Battle' seemed to have the race sewn up, 'Sinners' surged with a surprise win for its ensemble cast at the Actor Awards, throwing the competition wide open. Experts are now divided on which film has the edge, with both films having won key precursor awards. The race remains too close to call, with the Writers Guild Awards and other late-breaking prizes still to come before the final Oscar voting.

Why it matters

The unpredictable nature of this year's Oscar race highlights the evolving nature of the Academy's voting patterns. In recent years, the Oscars have seen several surprising winners, defying historical precedents. This year's battle between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' is the latest example of how the Academy's preferences can shift, making the race more exciting but also more difficult to call.

The details

After 'One Battle After Another' seemed to have the Best Picture race locked up, winning a string of major awards including the Critics Choice, Directors Guild, and Producers Guild Awards, 'Sinners' staged a late comeback. The film's surprise win for Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards, coupled with a lead acting award for Michael B. Jordan, has suddenly made the race a toss-up. Experts note that the Actor Awards' ensemble prize has often been a harbinger of Oscar upsets, and that the guild's large and diverse voting body may be more in sync with the Academy's preferences than some of the other precursor awards.

  • The Producers Guild Award for 'One Battle After Another' was announced on February 3, 2026.
  • The Actor Awards ceremony, where 'Sinners' won Best Ensemble and Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor, took place on February 27, 2026.

The players

Paul Thomas Anderson

The director of 'One Battle After Another', which had been considered the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar.

Ryan Coogler

The director of 'Sinners', which has emerged as the main challenger to 'One Battle After Another' for the Best Picture Oscar.

Michael B. Jordan

The lead actor of 'Sinners', who won the Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role award at the Actor Awards.

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What’s next

The Writers Guild of America will announce its annual awards in the coming weeks, which could provide further insight into the Oscar race. However, experts note that the WGA results may not help clarify the situation, as 'One Battle After Another' is likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay while 'Sinners' is expected to take Best Original Screenplay.

The takeaway

This year's unpredictable Oscar race between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' highlights the evolving nature of the Academy's voting patterns. With historical precedents becoming less reliable, the final outcome remains a true toss-up, making the final weeks of campaigning all the more crucial for both films.