TransUnion Forecasts Moderate Expansion in 2026 Originations

Mortgage and unsecured personal loans expected to drive growth as other credit products show mixed performance

Published on Feb. 24, 2026

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TransUnion released its 2026 credit originations forecast, highlighting continued momentum in originations for mortgages and unsecured personal loans, while other credit products show mixed performance. The forecast points to mortgage and unsecured personal loans as the primary drivers of projected expansion, with mortgage originations set to extend the rebound of the past two years and unsecured personal loans on pace for a third consecutive year of annual growth.

Why it matters

The forecast provides insights into the expected trends in consumer lending, which can have significant implications for the broader economy. The continued growth in mortgage and unsecured personal loan originations suggests ongoing consumer demand for credit, while the mixed performance in other credit products reflects the normalization of the credit landscape after a period of pandemic-related disruptions.

The details

The 2026 originations forecast points to mortgage and unsecured personal loans as the primary drivers of projected expansion. Mortgage originations, both purchase and refinance, are set to extend the rebound of the past two years from near-record low levels, and unsecured personal loans are on pace for a third consecutive year of annual growth. Credit cards are also expected to see a modest increase in originations for 2026, while auto loan originations are expected to edge lower, following 2025 gains that were driven largely by consumers who accelerated purchases in advance of anticipated tariffs and the end of the EV tax credit.

  • The 2026 originations forecast was released on February 19, 2026.
  • The forecast is based on data from TransUnion's Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report.

The players

TransUnion

An American consumer credit reporting agency that provides credit information and other information related to consumers.

Jason Laky

Executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion.

Michele Raneri

Vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion.

Paul Siegfried

Senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion.

Josh Turnbull

Senior vice president and consumer lending business leader at TransUnion.

Satyan Merchant

Senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion.

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What they’re saying

“We expect lending activity to remain measured across most categories as lenders take a disciplined approach to profitable growth, using more data and services to better manage risk and fraud.”

— Jason Laky, Executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion

“After several years marked by credit behaviors influenced by stubbornly high inflation and elevated interest rates, we may be seeing signs of a return to more traditional growth.”

— Michele Raneri, Vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion

“Origination volume is expected to remain flat or experience slight seasonal declines next quarter, with a growing share shifting toward below-prime consumers. The continued expansion of the bankcard market reflects strengthened originations across all risk tiers, reflecting a measured commitment to maintaining credit access for consumers throughout the risk spectrum.”

— Paul Siegfried, Senior vice president, credit card business leader at TransUnion

“More Americans are turning to unsecured personal loans, and lenders are meeting that demand with stronger risk management. FinTechs remain the most active issuers, and even at elevated growth levels, especially among non‑prime borrowers, performance reflects disciplined underwriting and recalibrated risk strategies.”

— Josh Turnbull, Senior vice president, consumer lending business leader at TransUnion

“As we move through 2026, easing 30‑year mortgage rates should improve affordability for both buyers and refinancers. Homeowners are also tapping accumulated equity, with home‑equity originations posting a sixth straight quarter of growth. We're seeing further signs of normalization as inventory reaches its most balanced levels in nearly a decade.”

— Satyan Merchant, Senior vice president, automotive and mortgage business leader at TransUnion

What’s next

TransUnion plans to host a webinar to discuss the Q4 2025 Credit Industry Insights Report, which provides more detailed insights into the latest consumer credit trends.

The takeaway

The 2026 originations forecast from TransUnion suggests a continued shift towards more traditional patterns of consumer credit growth, with mortgage and unsecured personal loans leading the way. However, the mixed performance across other credit products highlights the ongoing normalization of the credit landscape as lenders navigate evolving risk profiles and consumer demand.