Wheat Prices Bounce Back on Midday Trading

USDA's Ag Outlook Forum to release initial 2026 wheat crop estimates on Thursday

Published on Feb. 22, 2026

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The wheat complex is trading higher on Wednesday, with Chicago SRW futures up 5 to 7.5 cents, KC HRW futures posting 7 to 8 cent gains, and MPLS spring wheat showing 2 to 3 cent increases at midday. The upcoming USDA Ag Outlook Forum is expected to publish initial estimates for the 2026 wheat crop, with analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting a decline in acreage and production compared to last year.

Why it matters

Wheat prices are a key indicator of the health of the agricultural sector and can have significant impacts on food prices and the overall economy. The USDA's Ag Outlook Forum is a closely watched event that provides important insights into the future of the wheat market.

The details

The wheat complex is in bounce back mode on Wednesday, with Chicago SRW futures trading 5 to 7.5 cents higher, KC HRW futures posting 7 to 8 cent midday gains, and MPLS spring wheat showing 2 to 3 cent increases at midday. Heading into the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum on Thursday, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting a decline in all wheat acreage to 44.7 million acres, down approximately 600,000 acres from last year, and a drop in production to 1.872 billion bushels, down 113 million bushels from the previous year.

  • The USDA's Ag Outlook Forum will publish initial estimates for the 2026 wheat crop on Thursday, February 19, 2026.
  • The forecast for the next week calls for light precipitation in the SRW area, with the Southern Plains remaining dry.

The players

USDA

The United States Department of Agriculture, the federal agency responsible for developing and executing policies related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and rural development.

Bloomberg

A global financial media company that provides real-time data, news, and analytics to financial market participants around the world.

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The takeaway

The upcoming USDA Ag Outlook Forum will provide important insights into the future of the wheat market, which is a critical indicator of the overall health of the agricultural sector. The forecast for light precipitation in the SRW area and dry conditions in the Southern Plains could also impact wheat prices in the coming weeks.