Supreme Court Rulings Shift Against Trump as Shadow Docket Ends

Experts predict more losses for former president as justices confront administration's policies directly.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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Donald Trump's string of Supreme Court wins has hit a wall, in part because the court is now in regular session and can no longer rely on the so-called 'shadow docket' to hand the former president procedural victories without accompanying legal opinions. Experts say the court is more willing to rule against unpopular presidents toward the end of their terms, and Trump's dwindling support may contribute to this shift.

Why it matters

The Supreme Court's rulings against Trump on issues like tariffs and the deployment of National Guard troops signal a potential sea change in the relationship between the former president and the court he has come to depend on. As the justices are forced to confront the substantive legality of major Trump administration initiatives, it could have significant implications for the former president's agenda.

The details

Before the court was back in regular session, the conservative majority was able to use the shadow docket to grant Trump a number of procedural wins, with no accompanying legal opinions. But now that the court is fully in session, experts say Trump is likely to face more losses as the justices are required to provide detailed legal reasoning for their decisions.

  • The Supreme Court ruled against Trump on tariffs on February 18, 2026.
  • In December 2025, the court limited Trump's ability to deploy National Guard troops in Chicago.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president whose string of Supreme Court wins has hit a wall as the court is now in regular session.

Leah Litman

A professor of law at the University of Michigan who suggests the court is more willing to rule against unpopular presidents toward the end of their terms.

Richard H. Pildes

A New York University School of Law professor who believes the court will now confront the substantive legality of major Trump administration initiatives.

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What they’re saying

“The court is more willing and inclined to rule against presidents toward the end of their tenure, as they are less popular.”

— Leah Litman, Professor of Law, University of Michigan (Washington Post)

“This term, the court will begin to confront much more fully the substantive legality of major initiatives of the Trump administration. We will have a much better sense by the end of this term of the relationship between the court and President Trump.”

— Richard H. Pildes, Professor, New York University School of Law (Washington Post)

What’s next

Experts predict the Supreme Court will continue to scrutinize the legality of major Trump administration policies as the former president's popularity wanes, potentially leading to more losses for Trump as the court is forced to provide detailed legal reasoning for its decisions.

The takeaway

The Supreme Court's shift away from procedural wins for Trump through the shadow docket and toward more substantive rulings on the former president's policies signals a potential sea change in the relationship between the court and the executive branch, with significant implications for Trump's agenda.