Europe Debates Nuclear Deterrence as Doubts Grow About U.S. Commitment

European leaders grapple with the implications of shifting U.S. foreign policy priorities under the Trump administration.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

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As doubts grow about the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella over Europe, European leaders are increasingly debating whether to bolster their own nuclear deterrence capabilities, either through greater reliance on the French and British nuclear arsenals or by pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs. This shift comes amid concerns over the Trump administration's impulsive and erratic decision-making, as well as the expiration of the New START arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia.

Why it matters

Europe's security has long depended on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, but the Trump administration's criticisms of European defense spending and its handling of the Ukraine conflict have raised questions about the reliability of American security assurances. This has prompted European leaders to consider alternative nuclear deterrence options, which could have significant geopolitical and economic implications.

The details

European leaders are exploring options to reinforce their nuclear deterrence, including increasing reliance on the French and British nuclear arsenals or developing their own nuclear weapons programs. French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for intra-European debates on this issue, while Germany is reportedly in discussions with Paris about coming under the French nuclear umbrella. Poland's president has even suggested that Warsaw should develop its own nuclear capability.

  • The New START accord, the last major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, officially expired.
  • In the first 13 months of his second term, President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized European allies for their defense spending and approach to the Ukraine conflict.

The players

Marco Rubio

The U.S. Secretary of State who delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference that raised concerns among European leaders about the reliability of American security assurances.

Emmanuel Macron

The French President who is pushing for intra-European debates on reinforcing nuclear deterrence, with or without the United States.

Karol Nawrocki

The Polish President who has openly suggested that it might be appropriate for Warsaw to develop its own nuclear capability.

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What’s next

European leaders are expected to continue debating the merits and feasibility of bolstering their own nuclear deterrence capabilities in the coming months and years, as concerns about the U.S. commitment to European security persist.

The takeaway

The shifting dynamics in U.S.-European relations under the Trump administration have prompted a fundamental rethinking of Europe's security architecture, with the possibility of European nations pursuing greater nuclear autonomy to hedge against an increasingly unpredictable American security guarantee.