Fangraphs Projection Paints Bleak Picture for Cubs' Bregman

Forecast of career-worst numbers would be tough for fans to swallow in Bregman's first season in Chicago.

Feb. 17, 2026 at 10:31pm

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According to projections from respected baseball analysis site Fangraphs, newly signed Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman is expected to have a down year in 2026, with career-low numbers in home runs, RBIs, runs scored, on-base percentage, and OPS. This would be a major disappointment for the Cubs and their fans, who are hoping Bregman's playoff experience and elite play can help the team make a deep postseason run.

Why it matters

Bregman's production is crucial to the Cubs' success, as he was signed to a five-year, $175 million contract to provide a major offensive boost. If he struggles as projected, it would be a huge blow to the Cubs' chances and leave fans questioning the team's big offseason investment.

The details

Fangraphs' ZiPS and Steamer projections have Bregman hitting just 23 home runs with 82 RBIs, 87 runs scored, a .340 on-base percentage, and a .761 OPS in 2026. These numbers would all represent career worsts for the three-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion. His projected .421 slugging percentage would also be a career low, well below his .450+ career mark.

  • Bregman signed a five-year, $175 million contract with the Cubs in the 2025 offseason.

The players

Alex Bregman

A three-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion, Bregman was signed by the Cubs in the 2025 offseason to a five-year, $175 million contract to provide a major offensive boost.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are hoping Bregman's playoff experience and elite play can help the team make a deep postseason run after their World Series win in 2016.

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What’s next

The Cubs and their fans will be closely watching Bregman's performance throughout the 2026 season to see if he can bounce back from the Fangraphs projection and live up to his lucrative contract.

The takeaway

The Fangraphs projection of a career-worst season for Alex Bregman in his first year with the Cubs would be a tough pill for the team and its fans to swallow, as they are counting on him to provide a major offensive boost and help the team make a deep playoff run.