Percentages Say Bears Unlikely to Repeat 2025 Worst-to-First Playoff Run

History shows teams that go from worst to first often struggle the following season, making a Super Bowl appearance even more difficult.

Feb. 13, 2026 at 11:23pm

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The Chicago Bears pulled off the impressive feat of going from worst to first in the NFC North in the 2025 season, but history suggests it will be difficult for them to repeat that success and make the playoffs again in 2026. Data shows that only 7 out of 28 teams since 2000 that went from worst to first were able to make the playoffs the following season, and just one - the 2006 Bears - even reached the Super Bowl. The Bears will face challenges in following up their 2025 campaign, including a tougher schedule, less salary cap flexibility, and difficulty finding additional talent in the draft.

Why it matters

The Bears' remarkable turnaround in 2025 captured the attention of the NFL and their passionate fanbase. However, the data shows that sustaining that level of success the following season is extremely difficult, with most teams struggling to even make the playoffs again. This raises questions about whether the Bears can build on their 2025 campaign and potentially reach the Super Bowl, or if they are more likely to take a step back in 2026.

The details

According to the report, since 2000 there have been 28 instances of teams going from worst to first in their division. Of those 28 teams, only 7 were able to make the playoffs the following season. Even more daunting, the 2006 Bears are the only team in that span to reach the Super Bowl after a worst-to-first turnaround. The report cites several factors that make it difficult for these teams to sustain success, including facing a tougher schedule as division champions, having less salary cap flexibility, and struggling to find additional talent in the draft after picking late the previous year.

  • The Bears went from worst to first in the 2025 NFL season.
  • The 2006 Bears are the only team since 2000 to reach the Super Bowl the year after a worst-to-first campaign.

The players

Caleb Williams

The Bears' starting quarterback, who is entering his third NFL season in 2026.

Ryan Poles

The Bears' general manager, who will be tasked with building on the team's 2025 success.

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What they’re saying

“I think that's part of the thing, one, can you self-evaluate and be critical of yourself and your team to make sure that you know what you have in the building. And then can you keep pounding away and stick into your process? You make tweaks of course, but stick to the process of bringing in the right types of people and it usually works out for you.”

— Ryan Poles, Bears General Manager

What’s next

The Bears will need to carefully evaluate their roster and make strategic moves in free agency and the draft to build on their 2025 success, while also preparing for a tougher schedule as division champions.

The takeaway

The Bears' remarkable worst-to-first turnaround in 2025 captured the attention of the NFL, but history shows that sustaining that level of success the following season is extremely difficult. The Bears will face significant challenges in 2026, but if they can navigate those obstacles, they have a chance to become the rare team that reaches the Super Bowl after a worst-to-first campaign.