US Farm Income Set to Fall in 2026 Despite Surge in Government Payments

USDA forecasts farm income decline despite record government payments, as low crop prices, debt and trade pressures strain U.S. farmers.

Published on Feb. 5, 2026

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast that U.S. net farm income will fall 0.7% in 2026, despite near-record government payments that are expected to account for nearly 29% of producers' bottom line. The decline is attributed to low crop prices, a global grain glut, rising operational costs, and lost export sales due to trade policy changes. Many farmers are increasingly dependent on federal support to pay their bills, even as government payments near record levels.

Why it matters

The forecast decline in U.S. farm income, despite high government payments, highlights the ongoing financial strain facing the agricultural sector. Factors such as low crop prices, high debt levels, and trade challenges continue to put pressure on farmers, raising concerns about the long-term viability of the industry. This could have broader economic implications, as the agriculture sector plays a crucial role in the U.S. economy.

The details

According to the USDA, net farm income is forecast to drop 0.7% to $153.4 billion in 2026 from the previous year. When adjusted for inflation, net farm income is projected to decrease by $4.1 billion or 2.6%. Without government payments, net farm income this year would fall nearly 12% to $109.1 billion. The higher government support figures reflect payments from Farm Bill programs triggered by falling crop prices, along with continued high levels of supplemental and disaster assistance.

  • USDA forecast that U.S. net farm income would fall 0.7% in 2026.
  • Government payments are expected to make up nearly 29% of farm income in 2026.

The players

USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, the federal agency responsible for developing and executing policies related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and rural development.

Wesley Davis

A partner at Meridian Agribusiness Advisors, an agricultural economics consultancy in New York City.

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What they’re saying

“Government payments are doing a lot of the work in supporting crop producers.”

— Wesley Davis, Partner, Meridian Agribusiness Advisors

What’s next

The chair of the U.S. Senate's agriculture committee said on Tuesday that many farmers were suffering heavy losses, while more than two dozen former USDA officials and industry leaders cautioned lawmakers that U.S. agriculture faced the risk of a 'widespread collapse' in part because of the Trump administration's policies.

The takeaway

The forecast decline in U.S. farm income, despite record government payments, underscores the ongoing financial challenges facing the agricultural sector. Factors such as low crop prices, high debt levels, and trade disruptions continue to strain farmers, raising concerns about the long-term viability of the industry and the potential for a broader economic impact.