US Farm Income Forecast to Fall in 2026 Despite Government Aid

USDA predicts net farm income will drop 0.7% this year, even as government payments account for nearly 29% of farmers' bottom line.

Published on Feb. 5, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that U.S. net farm income will fall 0.7% in 2026 to $153.4 billion, despite near-record government payments that are expected to make up almost 29% of producers' profits. Without government support, net farm income would drop nearly 12% to $109.1 billion. Farmers, economists, and lawmakers warn that even more federal aid may be needed to offset the impact of low crop prices, a global grain glut, rising costs, and trade policy changes.

Why it matters

The decline in net farm income, even with high government payments, signals growing stress in the U.S. agricultural economy. Farmers are increasingly dependent on federal support to pay their bills, raising concerns about the long-term viability of the sector as operational costs rise and export markets shrink.

The details

The USDA forecasts that farmers will receive $30.5 billion in direct payments in 2025 and $44.3 billion in 2026, excluding crop insurance indemnities. These levels have not been seen since the COVID-19 pandemic and trade disruptions during the Trump administration. The higher support figures reflect payments from Farm Bill programs triggered by falling crop prices, along with continued high levels of supplemental and disaster assistance.

  • The USDA forecast was released on February 5, 2026.
  • The data was not released in December due to an earlier federal government shutdown, making it harder for economists to assess stress in the sector.

The players

USDA

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, the federal agency responsible for developing and executing policies related to agriculture, food, natural resources, and rural development.

Wesley Davis

A partner at Meridian Agribusiness Advisors, an agricultural economics consultancy in New York City.

U.S. Senate's agriculture committee

The Senate committee responsible for overseeing and legislating on matters related to agriculture, food, and rural development.

More than two dozen former USDA officials and industry leaders

A group of former USDA officials and agricultural industry leaders who cautioned lawmakers that U.S. agriculture faced the risk of a 'widespread collapse' in part because of the Trump administration's policies.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“U.S. agriculture faced the risk of a 'widespread collapse' in part because of the Trump administration's policies.”

— More than two dozen former USDA officials and industry leaders (ksgf.com)

What’s next

The USDA will continue to monitor the agricultural economy and provide updated forecasts on farm income and government support in the coming months.

The takeaway

The reliance on government payments to prop up farm income highlights the fragility of the U.S. agricultural sector, raising concerns about its long-term sustainability as operational costs rise and export markets shrink. Policymakers may need to consider additional support measures to help farmers weather the current economic challenges.