Men's March Madness Expert Predictions: Dark Horses, Vulnerable No. 1 Seeds, Title Winner

SI writers make their picks for the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament

Mar. 17, 2026 at 11:51pm

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Ahead of the men's NCAA tournament, Sports Illustrated writers Pat Forde, Kevin Sweeney and Bryan Fischer sit down to predict what we'll see over the next three weeks of March Madness, including their picks for National Player of the Year, Final Four, and national championship winner, as well as dark horse teams to watch and the most vulnerable No. 1 seeds.

Why it matters

The NCAA men's basketball tournament is one of the most anticipated sporting events of the year, with millions of fans filling out brackets and following the action as teams compete for the national championship. These expert predictions provide insight into the top players, teams, and storylines to watch as the tournament unfolds.

The details

The writers make a strong case for Duke's Cameron Boozer as the National Player of the Year, citing his consistent production, high basketball IQ, and ability to control games as a 6'9" point guard. For the Final Four and national championship, the predictions are fairly chalky, with Arizona, Michigan, Houston, and Duke making the Final Four, and the writers picking Arizona to win their first title since 1997. However, they also identify several potential dark horse teams, including St. John's, South Florida, and UCLA, that could make deep tournament runs. The writers also single out Florida as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed, citing their potential Sweet 16 matchup with Vanderbilt and a potential regional final against Houston in Houston.

  • The men's NCAA tournament First Four games tip off on Tuesday night.
  • The writers made their predictions ahead of the tournament.

The players

Cameron Boozer

A freshman at Duke University who is the writers' pick for National Player of the Year after an outstanding season in which he averaged a 22-point, 10-rebound double-double.

Cooper Flagg

A player at Duke University who had a standout season last year but is overshadowed by Boozer's performance this year.

Darius Acuff Jr.

A player for Arkansas who the writers believe could have a Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier-like impact on the NCAA tournament.

Yaxel Lendeborg

A national player of the year candidate for Michigan who the writers had previously expected to pick as their national title pick.

Aday Mara

A great big man for Michigan who, along with Lendeborg, had the writers considering the Wolverines as their national title pick.

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What they’re saying

“Boozer is the best player in the country and a huge difference-maker late in games, but what really excites me with Duke is how consistently elite they've been on the defensive end.”

— Kevin Sweeney, Writer

“This season's crop of No. 1 seeds is strong, but I don't know that I see a repeat of last year's No. 1 sweep happening. Someone will create some chaos, and I'm predicting that Darius Acuff Jr. and the Razorbacks are the ones to create it by knocking off Arizona and Purdue.”

— Kevin Sweeney, Writer

What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.