Idaho Industry Leaders Warn of $5.1 Billion Economic Risk from Immigration Crackdown

Report estimates up to 4% reduction in state GDP if unauthorized workforce is significantly reduced

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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Industry leaders in Idaho have released a report warning that proposed state-level immigration crackdowns could cost the state up to $5.1 billion in economic output and $397.8 million in tax revenue. The report, funded by the Idaho Alliance for a Legal Workforce, estimates that removing a significant portion of Idaho's unauthorized immigrant workforce could reduce the state's gross product by up to 4%, similar to the impact of the Great Recession.

Why it matters

Idaho's agriculture, dairy, construction, and hospitality industries rely heavily on unauthorized immigrant labor. Industry groups argue that restricting this workforce could devastate key sectors of the state's economy, which is already on a "knife's edge" according to the report's authors.

The details

The report, prepared by researchers from the University of Idaho and Washington State University, modeled the impact of a 50% reduction in unauthorized workers in major industries. It estimated a 45% drop in dairy output, 25% decline in dairy processing, 22.5% reduction in overall agriculture, 13% drop in construction labor and output, and 10% less output in hospitality and dining. Industry leaders pushed back against criticism that using migrant labor amounts to "slave labor", arguing that wages and working conditions are fair.

  • The report was released on Friday, February 16, 2026.
  • In 2024, industry groups requested the University of Idaho to produce a similar report on the value of unauthorized workers to Idaho's economy.

The players

Idaho Alliance for a Legal Workforce

A group of employers from industries that depend on immigrant labor that advocates for immigration policies.

Tim Nadreau

A regional economist at his own firm and faculty at the University of Idaho and Washington State University, who co-authored the report.

Steven Peterson

An associate professor at the University of Idaho and economic consultant, who co-authored the report.

Rick Naerebout

CEO of the Idaho Dairymen's Association.

Zak Miller

CEO of the Idaho Farm Bureau Federation.

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What they’re saying

“This is explicitly taking a shot across the bow of our growth industries for the state, and this comes at a time when our economy is sitting on a knife's edge. The fundamentals of our economy are strong, but they are at risk right now.”

— Tim Nadreau, Regional economist and co-author of the report

“That is a comment that comes from a place of ignorance. My dairymen are good people. They treat their workers well.”

— Rick Naerebout, CEO, Idaho Dairymen's Association

“It's a hard job to work in agriculture, but it's a fair job, and it's an honest job, and people that want to do that can better their families. But what we see, is Americans seem to not want that.”

— Zak Miller, CEO, Idaho Farm Bureau Federation

What’s next

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The takeaway

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