Dry Outlook Persists For Missouri River

Warm February temperatures led to early snowmelt, but overall 2026 runoff forecast remains well below average.

Mar. 12, 2026 at 5:07pm

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The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports that while February runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa was slightly above average, the overall 2026 runoff forecast remains well below average at 80% of normal. Warm temperatures triggered early snowmelt, but mountain snowpack and soil moisture levels are still low due to ongoing drought conditions.

Why it matters

The Missouri River is a vital water source for agriculture, industry, and municipal use across several states. A below-average runoff forecast could lead to water conservation measures and potential impacts on water-dependent activities and ecosystems.

The details

February runoff was 1.3 million acre-feet, 113% of average, but the full-year runoff forecast above Sioux City is 20.6 million acre-feet, only 80% of the average. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers says the warmer-than-normal temperatures led to an early melt of lower-than-average plains snow, and mountain snowpack and soil moisture remain low due to drought.

  • In February, runoff was 113% of average.
  • The full-year 2026 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 80% of average.
  • Releases from Gavins Point Dam are currently 12,000 cubic-feet-per-second and will remain low through mid-March.

The players

John Remus

Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

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What they’re saying

“Runoff into the reservoir system was slightly above average for the month of February, but conditions across most of the basin remain dry.”

— John Remus, Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division

“While lower reservoir storage helps to decrease the chances of systemic flooding, continued water conservation measures will be required.”

— John Remus, Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division

What’s next

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will continue to monitor the situation and may adjust Gavins Point Dam releases as needed to conserve water in the reservoir system.

The takeaway

The Missouri River Basin is facing a below-average runoff forecast for 2026, which could necessitate water conservation measures and impact water-dependent activities in the region. This highlights the ongoing challenges posed by drought conditions and the importance of effective water management in the basin.