Punxsutawney Phil's Accuracy Rated at 35% Over 20 Years

Other groundhog weather forecasters outperform the famous Pennsylvania rodent, analysis finds.

Jan. 31, 2026 at 1:31am

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the famous Punxsutawney Phil has an accuracy rating of only about 35% in predicting the onset of spring over the past 20 years. An analysis by NOAA found that other groundhog weather forecasters, including Staten Island Chuck and a largemouth bass named Benny in Ohio, have significantly outperformed Phil in their spring predictions.

Why it matters

Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day prediction is a beloved annual tradition, but the data shows the famous Pennsylvania rodent is far from the most reliable weather forecaster. This raises questions about the value and accuracy of relying on animal prognosticators to predict the arrival of spring.

The details

NOAA's analysis covered the period from 2005 to 2024 and only included groundhogs with at least 20 predictions on their records. Staten Island Chuck ranked first with an 85% accuracy rating, while Punxsutawney Phil came in 17th place. The analysis also found there are currently 77 prognosticating 'groundhogs' in the United States, including other animals like a largemouth bass and even people dressed in groundhog costumes.

  • Punxsutawney Phil has made his Feb. 2 prediction in Gobbler's Knob since 1886.
  • NOAA's analysis covered the period from 2005 to 2024.

The players

Punxsutawney Phil

The famous groundhog in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania who makes an annual Groundhog Day prediction about the arrival of spring.

Staten Island Chuck

A groundhog known for biting New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2009, who has an 85% accuracy rating in NOAA's analysis.

Benny

A largemouth bass in Ohio that is one of the 77 'prognosticating groundhogs' in the United States.

Polk County Paula

A person dressed in a groundhog suit in Des Moines, Iowa who is one of the 77 'prognosticating groundhogs' in the United States.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

The U.S. government scientific agency that conducted the analysis on the accuracy of different groundhog weather forecasters.

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The takeaway

While Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day prediction remains a beloved tradition, the data shows other groundhog weather forecasters are significantly more accurate in predicting the arrival of spring. This raises questions about the value of relying on animal prognosticators for weather forecasting.