EIA Projects Higher Oil Price in 2026: What Lies Ahead for ExxonMobil?

XOM could benefit from stronger crude prices as WTI tops $90 and EIA projects higher averages, supporting output growth from its Permian and Guyana assets.

Mar. 12, 2026 at 5:18pm

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According to the latest short-term energy outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is expected to average $73.61 per barrel in 2026, higher than $65.40 last year. This favorable pricing environment is highly beneficial for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), which generates a significant portion of its earnings from upstream operations. XOM has a strong presence in the prolific Permian basin and offshore Guyana, where it has been able to boost well recoveries and make several oil and gas discoveries, supporting its production outlook. Other Permian players like Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG) and ConocoPhillips (COP) are also well-positioned to benefit from the projected higher oil prices.

Why it matters

The projected increase in oil prices is expected to support the upstream operations of major oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Diamondback Energy, and ConocoPhillips, which have a strong presence in key shale plays like the Permian basin. This could lead to higher production, revenues, and profits for these companies, potentially boosting their stock prices and benefiting investors.

The details

ExxonMobil has been employing lightweight proppant technology in the Permian basin, which has allowed it to boost well recoveries by up to 20%. In Guyana, the company has made several oil and gas discoveries, further enhancing its production outlook. Both the Permian and Guyana assets have low breakeven costs, which should help ExxonMobil capitalize on the higher oil prices. Diamondback Energy and ConocoPhillips also have a strong presence in the Permian, with the latter's Delaware Basin contributing significantly to its Lower 48 production.

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the WTI oil price to average $73.61 per barrel in 2026, higher than $65.40 last year.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently trading at more than $90 per barrel, according to data from oilprice.com.

The players

Exxon Mobil Corporation

An integrated oil and gas company that has a strong footprint in the Permian basin and offshore Guyana, generating a significant portion of its earnings from upstream operations.

Diamondback Energy Inc.

A Permian pure-play player with sufficient drilling inventory to sustain its production for more than 10 years.

ConocoPhillips

An oil and gas company with assets in the prolific Delaware and Midland basins of the Permian, which contribute considerably to its Lower 48 production.

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The takeaway

The projected increase in oil prices is expected to benefit major oil and gas companies with a strong upstream presence, such as ExxonMobil, Diamondback Energy, and ConocoPhillips. These companies' ability to boost production and capitalize on the favorable pricing environment could lead to higher revenues, profits, and potentially stronger stock performance.