Koloa, Hawaii Forecast Shifts to El Niño Conditions

NOAA predicts warming Pacific waters will bring changes to weather patterns in the coming months.

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will warm over the next several months, marking a departure from the current La Niña pattern to an El Niño pattern by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season. This transition could bring some changes to the weather in the Lower 48 states.

Why it matters

El Niño and La Niña are major climate patterns that can significantly impact weather conditions across the globe. The shift from La Niña to El Niño could affect temperature, precipitation, and storm activity in many regions, including the United States.

The details

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles explains that the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters is a sign that the current La Niña pattern is coming to an end and an El Niño pattern is emerging. This transition typically takes several months and can have wide-ranging effects on weather patterns.

  • NOAA is now forecasting the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to warm over the next several months.
  • The transition from La Niña to El Niño is expected to occur by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

Jonathan Belles

A meteorologist who explains the transition from La Niña to El Niño and the potential weather impacts.

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What they’re saying

“NOAA is now forecasting water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to warm over the next several months, marking a departure from La Niña to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.”

— Jonathan Belles, Meteorologist (weather.com)

The takeaway

The shift from La Niña to El Niño could bring significant changes to weather patterns in the United States and around the world, underscoring the importance of closely monitoring climate trends and preparing for potential impacts.