Hawaii Braces for Wetter, Stickier Summer Ahead

El Niño conditions forecast to bring increased tropical storm risk

Apr. 10, 2026 at 10:05am

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A dramatic, atmospheric landscape painting depicting a small coastal town or village dwarfed by a massive, looming storm system, conveying the overwhelming scale and power of the natural world.As Hawaii braces for a potentially active and humid tropical storm season, the natural power of the Pacific Ocean looms large over the island state.Honolulu Today

Hawaii is facing the likelihood of a wetter and more humid than normal summer and fall, according to the National Weather Service, which has forecast a 61% chance of an El Niño developing in the coming months. The transition to El Niño ocean conditions is expected to generate warmer waters that could trigger more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Central Pacific region.

Why it matters

El Niño weather patterns can have significant impacts on Hawaii, often leading to increased rainfall, humidity, and tropical storm activity during the summer and fall months. This poses risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety that state and local officials will need to prepare for.

The details

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has forecast a 61% chance of El Niño conditions appearing between May and July, which could persist through the end of the year. El Niño is characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can fuel more tropical storm development. This comes on the heels of three major storms that have already struck Hawaii in the past month.

  • The National Weather Service issued its El Niño forecast on Thursday, April 10, 2026.
  • The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.

The players

National Weather Service

The federal agency responsible for weather forecasting and issuing warnings about severe weather events.

Joe Clark

A meteorologist in the National Weather Service's Honolulu office who focuses on the agency's climate program.

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What they’re saying

“The ocean is in a period of transition right now.”

— Joe Clark, Meteorologist

“It can get humid and nasty. ... The summer pattern could well involve multiple tropical cyclones, or tropical storms.”

— Joe Clark, Meteorologist

What’s next

The National Weather Service will continue to monitor the development of El Niño conditions and provide updates on the potential for increased tropical storm activity in Hawaii throughout the summer and fall.

The takeaway

Hawaii residents and officials should prepare for the likelihood of a wetter, more humid, and potentially more active tropical storm season in the coming months due to the expected transition to El Niño weather patterns. Proactive planning and preparedness will be crucial to mitigate the risks posed by potential increases in rainfall, flooding, and tropical cyclone activity.