Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Order

The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born.

Mar. 23, 2026 at 4:03am

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As the U.S.-led international order built after World War II and expanded after the Cold War comes to an end, the world faces three possible scenarios: a new Cold War-style rivalry between the U.S. and China, a fracturing into regional spheres of influence, or a descent into chaotic self-help as the U.S. turns predatory. The outcome will depend heavily on the choices made by the U.S. in the coming years.

Why it matters

The collapse of the post-WWII international order led by the U.S. will have major geopolitical and economic consequences, potentially leading to a new era of great power competition, regional instability, and a breakdown of global cooperation and trade. The path the U.S. chooses will be pivotal in shaping what emerges from this interregnum.

The details

The U.S.-led order that brought decades of peace and prosperity is under assault from revisionist powers like China and Russia, as well as growing disillusionment within the U.S. itself. Three scenarios are possible: 1) a new Cold War-style rivalry between the U.S. and China-led blocs, 2) a fracturing into regional spheres of influence dominated by major powers, or 3) a chaotic self-help world as the U.S. turns predatory. The outcome will depend heavily on policy choices made in Washington in the coming years.

  • The old international order built by the U.S. after WWII has been eroding for years.
  • The current moment feels precarious as these three scenarios become increasingly plausible.

The players

United States

The superpower that built and led the post-WWII international order, now facing a crossroads in how it engages with the world.

China

A revisionist power seeking to challenge U.S. dominance and build its own sphere of influence, especially in Asia.

Russia

Another revisionist power working with China to undermine the U.S.-led order, especially in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet space.

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The takeaway

The collapse of the post-WWII international order led by the U.S. will have major global implications, with the path the U.S. chooses in the coming years being pivotal in shaping what emerges from this uncertain period - whether a new Cold War, regional spheres of influence, or a chaotic self-help world. The stakes are high, as the next era is likely to be more divided and dangerous than the last.