High Costs and Low Pay Drive Hawaiʻi Population Decline

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A new analysis from the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) reveals that Hawaiʻi has experienced net outmigration for 23 of the past 25 years, with more residents leaving the state than arriving from the continental U.S. Researchers say the answer lies in a combination of high living costs and relatively modest incomes in Hawaiʻi, a rare and troubling mix that makes the state an outlier nationally.

Why it matters

Hawaiʻi's persistent population decline is a concerning trend, as the state struggles to retain residents amid economic pressures. This analysis sheds light on the complex factors driving outmigration, including high costs of living and a widening income gap with the rest of the nation, which together make it increasingly difficult for many to stay in Hawaiʻi.

The details

The research found that higher prices tend to push residents out of a region, while higher incomes attract them. In Hawaiʻi, both forces are working in the same direction, with the state having both high living costs and relatively modest incomes compared to the national average. This combination places Hawaiʻi in a rare and concerning category, where residents are "priced out and left behind." The outmigration is driven by a mix of factors, including geographic isolation, limited housing supply, congestion, and a narrow industry base in urban Honolulu, in addition to the broader economic pressures.

• For 23 of the past 25 years, more residents have left Hawaiʻi than arrived from the continental U.S.
• The UHERO analysis was released on March 19, 2026.

What they’re saying

What’s next

Researchers recommend policies that diversify Hawaiʻi's economy, support innovation, and remove barriers to growth, alongside continued efforts to improve affordability, in order to boost long-term income and productivity growth and make the state economically sustainable.