Hawaii's Tourism Industry Faces Flat Growth and Global Competition

Visitor numbers and spending remain below pre-pandemic levels as Maui's recovery lags and international markets struggle to rebound.

Published on Feb. 8, 2026

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Hawaii's visitor industry is stabilizing but not expanding, facing a year of modest gains in 2026 as Maui's recovery drags and international markets like Japan and Canada continue to lag. Economists and industry leaders at an annual outlook forum described an industry vulnerable to global competition and domestic economic divides, with visitor numbers and spending still well below pre-pandemic peaks. The state is projected to see just 0.7% growth in arrivals this year to 9.76 million, with spending rising 2.4% to $22.07 billion. Intensifying competition from lower-cost destinations like Mexico and Fiji, limited international air service, and the impact of Maui's short-term rental ban are among the key challenges.

Why it matters

Hawaii's tourism-dependent economy is expanding more slowly than the rest of the state and will continue to trail national growth, raising concerns about the industry's long-term resilience. The state's vulnerability to global competition and domestic economic divides could have significant implications for jobs, tax revenues, and the overall economic health of the islands.

The details

Visitor numbers in 2025 declined 0.6% from the previous year to 9.64 million, far short of the 10.4 million arrivals recorded in 2019. Visitor spending rose 5.7% to $21.75 billion, but remains below the $17.75 billion spent in 2019. The slowdown began in May 2025 and persisted through the end of the year. Forecasts point to just 0.7% growth in arrivals this year to 9.76 million, with spending rising 2.4% to $22.07 billion. The visitor-dependent portion of Hawaii's economy is expanding more slowly than the rest of the state and will continue to trail national growth.

  • Hawaii entered 2026 with a visitor industry still well below its pre-pandemic peak.
  • In 2025, some 9.64 million visitors came to Hawaii, a 0.6% decline from the year before.
  • Visitor spending rose 5.7% to $21.75 billion in 2025, but remains below the $17.75 billion spent in 2019.
  • DBEDT expects arrivals to grow just 0.7% in 2026 to 9.76 million, with spending rising 2.4% to $22.07 billion.
  • Arrivals are forecast to inch up 0.9% in 2027 and 1.1% in 2028, with spending rising 2.8% and 3%, respectively.

The players

Erik Evjen

Executive vice president of Tourism Economics, a global forecasting and research company.

Seth Colby

Acting director of the state Department of Budget and Finance and former chief state economist.

Jeffrey Eslinger

Senior director of market insights for the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau.

Bianca Porto Barga

Senior sales manager for Amadeus, a travel and tourism technology company.

Paul Brewbaker

Principal of TZ Economics and a Hawaii economist.

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What they’re saying

“The national recovery has become decisively 'K‑shaped,' with affluent households driving premium travel while middle‑ and lower‑income consumers pull back. That divide is reshaping demand for airline seats and hotel tiers and will continue to influence Hawaii's visitor mix.”

— Erik Evjen, Executive vice president of Tourism Economics

“Suppose Maui now follows through extinguishing 30% of lodging units. Did you forget about tourism?”

— Paul Brewbaker, Principal of TZ Economics and Hawaii economist

What’s next

The state is expected to continue monitoring the impacts of Maui's short-term rental ban and the recovery of international markets, particularly Japan and Canada, as it works to stabilize and grow the tourism industry in the coming years.

The takeaway

Hawaii's tourism industry faces a challenging road ahead, with flat growth, intensifying global competition, and the lingering effects of the Maui wildfires and short-term rental ban threatening the industry's long-term resilience. Addressing these issues will require a multi-faceted approach focused on diversifying the visitor mix, investing in infrastructure, and supporting the recovery of Maui's visitor-dependent economy.