Hawaii Faces Steep Decline in High School Graduates

Lawmakers and education officials concerned about the future of small schools in shrinking communities

Jan. 29, 2026 at 3:47pm

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Hawaii is expected to see a 33% drop in high school graduates between 2023 and 2041, the greatest decline in the nation, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. This is raising concerns from lawmakers and the Department of Education about the sustainability of small schools in shrinking communities across the state.

Why it matters

The projected decline in high school graduates in Hawaii could have significant implications for the state's education system, including potential school closures and consolidations. This issue is especially pressing for small, rural schools that may struggle to maintain enrollment and funding.

The details

Hawaii's public schools are expected to award diplomas to just over 7,600 students in 2041, down from roughly 11,500 in 2023. Private schools are also expected to see a similar drop in graduating seniors over the same time frame. The Department of Education has already seen a 12% enrollment decline over the past decade, citing the state's declining birth rate and families leaving Hawaii.

  • Between 2023 and 2041, Hawaii could see a 33% drop in high school graduates.
  • In 2041, public schools in Hawaii are expected to award diplomas to just over 7,600 students, down from roughly 11,500 in 2023.
  • The Department of Education has seen a 12% enrollment decline over the past decade.

The players

Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

An organization that publishes reports on projected high school graduate numbers across the United States.

Hawaii Department of Education

The state agency responsible for managing Hawaii's public school system, which has seen a decline in enrollment in recent years.

Sen. Troy Hashimoto

A Hawaii state senator who introduced a bill to establish an independent commission to review school facilities and recommend consolidation, closure, or realignment of schools.

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What they’re saying

“'Decades of enrollment growth led to the construction of new campuses, but the recent and continuing decline in student numbers has left many facilities underutilized'”

— Sen. Troy Hashimoto, State Senator

What’s next

If lawmakers and the governor approve the findings of the independent commission proposed in Sen. Hashimoto's bill, the Department of Education would be required to implement the commission's recommendations following the 2028 legislative session.

The takeaway

Hawaii's projected steep decline in high school graduates over the next two decades poses significant challenges for the state's education system, particularly for small, rural schools. Policymakers and education officials will need to carefully consider how to adapt and restructure the school system to address this demographic shift while ensuring access to quality education for all students.