US Pump Prices Surge as Iran War Upends Global Energy Supply

Rising fuel costs could be a political test for the Republican Party ahead of midterm elections.

Published on Mar. 7, 2026

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U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices are soaring as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran constrains oil and fuel exports. Fuel prices jumped more than 10% this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, adding pain at the pump for consumers already strained by inflation. The disruptions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz have boosted demand for U.S. oil abroad, driving up prices for domestic refiners. Seasonal factors could add further pressure, with gasoline prices typically rising in the spring and peaking in the summer due to higher demand and production of summer-blend gasoline.

Why it matters

The surge in fuel prices could be a political test for President Donald Trump's Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in November. Trump had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash U.S. oil and gas drilling during his second term, but much of his tenure has been marked by volatility and uncertainty amid shifts in policies like tariffs and geopolitical turmoil. The rising costs could impact voters in key swing states like Georgia that supported Trump in the 2024 election.

The details

Fuel prices jumped more than 10% this week as oil rose above $90 a barrel, its highest in years. As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a gallon, up 11% from a week ago and the highest since September 2024, according to data from the motorists association AAA. Diesel was at $4.33, up 15% from a week ago, surging to the highest since November 2023. U.S. motorists in parts of the Midwest and the South, including states that supported Trump, have seen some of the steepest increases in fuel costs since the conflict in Iran started.

  • On Thursday, Trump shrugged off higher gasoline prices in an interview with Reuters, saying 'if they rise, they rise.'
  • As of Friday, the national average prices for regular gasoline stood at $3.32 a gallon, up 11% from a week ago and the highest since September 2024.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States who had vowed to lower energy prices and unleash U.S. oil and gas drilling during his second term.

Andrenna McDaniel

A healthcare insurance worker in South Fulton, Georgia who is surprised by the quick rise in fuel prices and does not agree with the war.

Richard Soule

A 69-year-old U.S. Air Force veteran and retired firefighter who is a Trump voter and believes the President's actions against Iran were the right thing to do.

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What they’re saying

“They jumped up so quickly.”

— Andrenna McDaniel, healthcare insurance worker (Reuters)

“When President Trump went in there and bombed out their nuclear, and they just thumbed their nose at it, I believe he did the right thing at the right time.”

— Richard Soule, U.S. Air Force veteran and retired firefighter (Reuters)

What’s next

More pain may be on the way, as oil prices continue to trend upward. On Friday, U.S. oil futures settled at $90.90 a barrel, up nearly $10 and the biggest single-day rise since April 2020. Analysts say the national average price of gasoline could climb toward $3.50 to $3.70 per gallon in the coming days if oil continues rising and supply disruptions persist.

The takeaway

The surge in fuel prices driven by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could be a political liability for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections, as voters in key swing states like Georgia that supported Trump feel the pain at the pump. The situation highlights the volatility and uncertainty in energy policy that has marked much of Trump's tenure, despite his promises to lower prices and boost domestic production.