Trump Tariffs Triple Costs for Midsize US Businesses, JPMorgan Chase Study Finds

Tariff payments by midsize firms have tripled since 2025, impacting employment, profits, and consumer prices.

Published on Feb. 27, 2026

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A new analysis from the JPMorgan Chase Institute found that tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have significantly impacted midsize U.S. businesses, with tariff payments tripling over the past year. The study suggests these businesses, employing 48 million Americans, are absorbing substantial costs through higher prices, reduced employment, or diminished profits.

Why it matters

The findings challenge the administration's claims that foreign entities bear the cost of tariffs, and reveal the complex impact on U.S. companies and consumers. While the goal was to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, the data shows midsize firms are redirecting sourcing to other countries, incurring additional costs in the process.

The details

The JPMorgan Chase Institute examined firms with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion and fewer than 500 employees. After tariff rate increases and new universal tariffs in April 2025, monthly tariff payments by these midsize firms have tripled compared to early 2025. This coincides with heightened trade tensions and the administration's pursuit of trade imbalances. The White House dismissed the analysis as 'pointless', despite broader economic data showing the U.S. trade deficit climbed by $25.5 billion last year.

  • The JPMorgan Chase Institute's research was published on Thursday, February 19, 2026.
  • In April 2025, President Trump invoked an economic emergency to impose a baseline tax on goods from much of the world.
  • Following the implementation of tariff rate increases and new universal tariffs in April 2025, monthly tariff payments by midsize firms have tripled compared to early January 2025 levels.

The players

JPMorgan Chase Institute

A research institute that conducted an analysis on the impact of Trump administration tariffs on midsize U.S. businesses.

Chi Mac

Business research director at the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

Kush Desai

Spokesperson for the White House, who dismissed the JPMorgan Chase Institute's analysis as 'pointless'.

President Trump

The President who implemented the tariffs, and who reiterated his support for them during a visit to Coosa Steel in Rome, Georgia on February 19, 2026.

Kevin Hassett

Director of the White House National Economic Council, who criticized research from the New York Federal Reserve that found nearly 90% of the burden of Trump's tariffs falls on U.S. companies and consumers.

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What they’re saying

“We must not let individuals continue to damage private property in San Francisco.”

— Robert Jenkins, San Francisco resident (San Francisco Chronicle)

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.