Ossoff Leads Georgia Senate Race in New Poll

Incumbent Democrat holds narrow leads over potential Republican challengers

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Georgia's 2026 U.S. Senate race shows incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff leading in hypothetical matchups against Republican Representatives Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, and candidate Derek Dooley. The poll identifies the closest race as between Ossoff and Carter, with Ossoff securing 47% to Carter's 44%.

Why it matters

Georgia has become a key battleground state, with recent statewide races decided by narrow margins. Republicans view Ossoff's seat as a pickup opportunity, as the 2026 Senate map favors the GOP. However, Democrats are hoping to cling to their recent gains in the state and flip the Senate's power balance.

The details

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted from February 28 to March 2 found Ossoff leading Collins 48% to 43%, Ossoff leading Dooley 49% to 41%, and Ossoff leading Carter 47% to 44%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. A subpoll of 453 likely Republican primary voters found Collins favored with 30%, compared to Carter's 16% and Dooley's 10%, with 40% undecided.

  • The Georgia Senate primaries are set for May 19, 2026.
  • If no candidate wins an outright majority in the primaries, a run-off will be held on June 16, 2026.
  • The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

The players

Jon Ossoff

The incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator from Georgia, who is seeking reelection.

Mike Collins

A Republican U.S. Representative from Georgia who is running for the Senate.

Buddy Carter

A Republican U.S. Representative from Georgia who is running for the Senate.

Derek Dooley

A Republican candidate running for the U.S. Senate in Georgia.

Spencer Kimball

The executive director of Emerson College Polling.

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What they’re saying

“Senator Jon Ossoff enters the 2026 election cycle just under 50% support, anchored by a strong base among independent voters, leading potential Republican opponents by an average of 16 points, along with voters under 50, leading by an average of 12 points, and women, leading by an average of 8 points.”

— Spencer Kimball, Executive Director, Emerson College Polling (Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media)

“A voting record isn't a liability if it's the right record. In my short time in Congress, I've fought and won to cut spending, eliminate burdensome regulations, and leave the next generation with a safer and more prosperous America. The Senate needs a workhorse who will get things done for Georgia, and I'll deliver.”

— Mike Collins, U.S. Representative (X)

“We covered everything from the issues that matter most to Georgians to President Trump's vision for a stronger, safer, and more prosperous America. Georgians are fired up and ready to get rid of Jon Ossoff. Excited to keep this momentum going as we continue talking to voters across the state!”

— Buddy Carter, U.S. Representative (X)

“All Georgians want the same thing – a safe community and country, a quality education or the skills needed to have a good job, and the ability to afford a home and raise a family. That's what the American Dream is all about, and it's what I'll be fighting for in the United States Senate when we defeat Jon Ossoff.”

— Derek Dooley, Candidate (X)

“The White House sent Trump to Georgia for damage control on the economy and health care … instead he focused yet again on 2020 election denial. None of this bodes well for the GOP!”

— Jon Ossoff, U.S. Senator (X)

What’s next

The Georgia Senate primaries are set to be held on May 19, 2026. If no candidate wins an outright majority in those primaries, the race would go to run-offs on June 16, 2026.

The takeaway

The Georgia Senate race is shaping up to be a closely watched contest, with the incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff holding narrow leads over potential Republican challengers. The outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.