Firms Predict an AI Productivity Boom Is Coming

New survey data shows businesses expect AI to boost productivity by 1.4% over the next 3 years, while reducing employment by 0.7%

Mar. 12, 2026 at 12:04am

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A new international survey of over 5,000 business leaders across the US, UK, Germany, and Australia finds that a majority of firms are currently using AI technologies, with adoption expected to increase further in the coming years. While AI has had little impact on employment and only modest productivity gains so far, firms anticipate much larger effects going forward - predicting a 1.4% boost to productivity and a 0.7% reduction in employment over the next 3 years on average.

Why it matters

As AI adoption continues to grow, understanding its real-world impacts on businesses is crucial for policymakers, workers, and the public. This new survey data provides rare insight directly from senior executives on the expected productivity and employment effects of AI, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges ahead.

The details

The survey data comes from four large, economy-wide business surveys conducted between November 2025 and January 2026 using identical questions - the US Survey of Business Uncertainty, UK Decision Maker Panel, German Bundesbank Online Panel, and Australian Business Outlook Scenarios Survey. Across all four countries, 69% of firms currently use some form of AI, with the most common applications being text generation, data processing, and visual content creation. Looking ahead, 75% of firms expect to be using AI over the next 3 years. In terms of impacts, firms report that AI has had little effect on employment so far, with an average decline of just 0.09% in the US and 0.14% in the UK over the past 3 years. However, going forward firms expect AI to reduce employment by around 0.7% on average, with the largest impacts predicted in the UK (-1.4%) and US (-1.2%). At the same time, firms expect AI to boost productivity by around 1.4% over the next 3 years, with the biggest gains expected in the US (+2.3%) and UK (+1.9%).

  • The survey data was collected between November 2025 and January 2026.
  • Firms were asked about the impacts of AI over the past 3 years and the next 3 years.

The players

Yotzov, I

Lead author of the study on firm-level AI adoption and impacts.

Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU)

A survey of US firms run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

Decision Maker Panel (DMP)

A survey of UK firms run by the Bank of England.

Bundesbank Online Panel – Firms (BOP-F)

A survey of German firms run by the Deutsche Bundesbank.

Business Outlook Scenarios Survey (BOSS)

A survey of Australian firms organized by Macquarie University.

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What they’re saying

“As AI adoption continues to grow, understanding its real-world impacts on businesses is crucial for policymakers, workers, and the public.”

— Yotzov, I, Lead author (cepr.org)

What’s next

The researchers plan to continue monitoring the adoption of AI technologies and their expected impacts through future waves of these business surveys.

The takeaway

This new international survey data provides rare insight directly from senior business executives on the anticipated productivity and employment effects of AI. While the impacts have been modest so far, firms expect AI to significantly boost productivity while also reducing employment in the coming years, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges ahead as AI adoption continues to grow.