Business Inflation Expectations Fall Back To Pre-Biden Normal

The "Trump Effect" reverses inflation concerns, according to new survey data.

Published on Feb. 22, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Business Inflation Expectations survey, business inflation expectations fell to 1.93% in February, matching the average level from 2015-2019 and marking the lowest reading since November 2020. This represents a sharp decline from 2.27% a year earlier and continues a downward trend that has seen expectations fall in nine of the past ten months.

Why it matters

The data suggests businesses view the current economic environment as a return to pre-pandemic normalcy rather than the beginning of an inflationary crisis, contradicting expert predictions about tariff-driven inflation. This "Trump Effect" reverses the sustained inflation surge seen during President Biden's term.

The details

The Atlanta Fed survey asks business executives to assign probabilities to different inflation scenarios for their own unit costs over the coming year, providing real-time insight into price-setting expectations. The February figure of 1.93% is now precisely at the median level that prevailed during the 2015-2019 expansion, when inflation consistently undershot the Federal Reserve's 2% target despite years of monetary stimulus and falling unemployment.

  • The February 2026 figure represents a sharp decline from 2.27% a year earlier.
  • Inflation expectations have fallen in nine of the past ten months.

The players

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducts the Business Inflation Expectations survey.

Cleveland Fed

The regional Federal Reserve bank that conducts the Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations.

President Joe Biden

The current President of the United States whose term has seen a sustained inflation surge, according to the article.

President Donald Trump

The former President of the United States whose economic policies are credited with the "Trump Effect" of reversing inflation concerns, according to the article.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

The takeaway

The return of business inflation expectations to pre-pandemic levels suggests the "Trump Effect" has reversed the sustained inflation surge seen during the Biden administration, contradicting expert predictions and demonstrating businesses' confidence in a return to economic normalcy.