NOAA Forecasts El Niño Transition by Hurricane Season

Shift from La Niña could bring changes to weather in the Lower 48 states

Published on Feb. 17, 2026

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NOAA is now predicting that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will warm over the next several months, marking a departure from the current La Niña conditions and a transition to an El Niño pattern by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season. This shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could bring some changes to the weather in the Lower 48 states.

Why it matters

El Niño and La Niña are major climate patterns that can significantly impact weather conditions across the United States and globally. The transition from La Niña to El Niño could affect temperature, precipitation, and storm patterns in the coming months, potentially influencing everything from hurricane activity to drought conditions.

The details

Meteorologist Jonathan Belles explains that the current La Niña conditions, which have been in place for the past several years, are expected to give way to an El Niño pattern in the months ahead. This transition is based on NOAA's latest forecasts, which show ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific warming over the next several months.

  • NOAA is now forecasting the transition from La Niña to El Niño.
  • The shift is expected to occur by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

Jonathan Belles

A meteorologist who explains the expected transition from La Niña to El Niño and its potential impacts on weather patterns.

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What they’re saying

“NOAA is now forecasting water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to warm over the next several months, marking a departure from La Niña to El Niño by the peak of the upcoming hurricane season.”

— Jonathan Belles, Meteorologist (weather.com)

What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the development of El Niño conditions and analyze how they may impact weather patterns in the coming months, particularly as the hurricane season approaches.

The takeaway

The transition from La Niña to El Niño could bring significant changes to weather conditions across the United States, underscoring the importance of closely tracking these major climate patterns and their potential effects on temperature, precipitation, and storm activity.