CSU Researchers Predict 'Somewhat Below-Average' 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures expected to limit storm activity.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 2:54pm

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting depicting a turbulent, stormy sky over a vast, open ocean, with the scale of the natural elements dwarfing any physical structures or objects in the scene.The looming presence of an impending storm system serves as a sobering reminder of the raw power of nature, even in a predicted 'below-average' hurricane season.Today in Tampa

Researchers at Colorado State University have released their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a 'somewhat below-average' year with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The forecast cites an anticipated transition to El Niño climate patterns and slightly cooler ocean temperatures as the primary factors behind the lower-than-normal activity.

Why it matters

The CSU hurricane forecast is a closely watched annual release that helps coastal communities, emergency managers, and insurance providers prepare for the upcoming season. While a below-average year is predicted, the researchers caution that it only takes one major storm to significantly impact a region, emphasizing the importance of ongoing preparedness efforts.

The details

According to the CSU report, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to see 13 named storms, 6 of which will become hurricanes, and 2 of those reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). This is below the 1991-2020 averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. The researchers cite the likely development of El Niño conditions, which typically create increased vertical wind shear and an unfavorable environment for storm development, as well as slightly cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic as the primary factors behind the forecast.

  • The CSU hurricane forecast was released on April 9, 2026.
  • The researchers will issue their next forecast update on June 10, 2026, just days after the start of the hurricane season.
  • Additional forecast updates are expected on July 8 and August 5, 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

A public research university located in Fort Collins, Colorado, known for its expertise in atmospheric science and tropical weather forecasting.

Phil Klotzbach

A senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and the lead author of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

Michael Bell

A professor at Colorado State University who emphasized the importance of coastal residents preparing for the hurricane season, even in a predicted below-average year.

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What they’re saying

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons. Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”

— Phil Klotzbach, Senior Research Scientist, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you.”

— Michael Bell, Professor, Colorado State University

What’s next

The researchers at Colorado State University will issue their next forecast update on June 10, 2026, just days after the start of the hurricane season, with additional updates expected on July 8 and August 5.

The takeaway

While the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be somewhat below average, the researchers caution that it only takes one major storm to significantly impact a region. This highlights the importance of ongoing preparedness efforts by coastal communities, emergency managers, and insurance providers, even in years with lower-than-normal forecast activity.