Coffee Prices Predicted to Plummet Like Cocoa

Analysts foresee a potential 70% crash in coffee prices by year's end

Mar. 20, 2026 at 4:05pm

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Experts are drawing parallels between the coffee and cocoa markets, predicting that coffee prices could see a dramatic collapse similar to the 70% drop in cocoa prices since 2025. Analysts cite factors like weather issues and trade distortions driving up prices, followed by an expected correction. While some argue coffee demand is more resilient, others forecast prices could sink as low as $1.80 per pound by the end of 2026.

Why it matters

A steep drop in coffee prices could provide significant relief for consumers who have seen grocery and cafe prices rise sharply in recent years. However, the coffee industry may be reluctant to fully pass on those savings, as companies often prove more willing to raise prices than lower them, even when commodity costs decline.

The details

Cocoa prices have plummeted around 70% since peaking in May 2025, and some experts believe coffee could follow a similar trajectory. Analysts at the National Coffee Association convention in Tampa drew parallels between the two markets, noting that arabica coffee futures spiked on weather issues and trade disruptions much like cocoa did before its dramatic collapse. Commodities strategist Carley Garner predicts coffee could sink to $2 per pound by the end of 2026, down from around $2.93 currently. Another analyst, Digby Beatson-Hird, sees prices potentially dipping even lower, to $1.80 per pound.

  • Cocoa prices peaked in May 2025 and have since dropped around 70%.
  • The National Coffee Association convention in Tampa took place last week.

The players

Carley Garner

A commodities strategist who predicts coffee could sink to $2 per pound by the end of 2026.

Digby Beatson-Hird

An analyst who sees coffee prices potentially dipping as low as $1.80 per pound.

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What they’re saying

“I would be shocked if it did not happen. I do think coffee is the new cocoa.”

— Carley Garner, Commodities Strategist

“If the customer is still willing to pay that higher price point, do we really take the price down?”

— Chris Costagli, Market Research Analyst

What’s next

Analysts will continue to monitor coffee futures and consumer demand trends to see if the predicted price crash materializes in the coming months.

The takeaway

A potential 70% drop in coffee prices could provide significant relief for consumers, but the coffee industry may be reluctant to fully pass on those savings, as companies often prove more willing to raise prices than lower them, even when commodity costs decline.