MLB Analyst Projects Rays' Caminero to See Offensive Dip

Slugger's breakout 2025 season may be tough to replicate.

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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MLB analyst Kiley McDaniel projects that Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero's offensive numbers, including his career-high 45 home runs in 2025, will likely take a dip in the upcoming 2026 season. McDaniel cites the difficulty of replicating such a standout power performance as well as some statistical indicators that Caminero may have benefited from some luck on balls in play last year.

Why it matters

Caminero emerged as a key offensive force for the Rays in 2025 as the team dealt with injuries to other stars like Shane McClanahan and the loss of Ha-Seong Kim. His continued production will be crucial for the Rays as they look to bounce back from a challenging 2025 campaign that saw them play home games at Steinbrenner Field due to hurricane damage at Tropicana Field.

The details

In 154 games in 2025, Caminero hit .264/.311/.535 with a career-high 45 home runs and 110 RBIs, earning his first All-Star selection. However, McDaniel notes that Caminero's expected wOBA (weighted on-base average) was lower than his actual wOBA in 2025, suggesting he may have benefited from some good fortune on balls in play. Replicating a 45-homer season is also an extremely difficult feat, leading McDaniel to project a dip in Caminero's offensive production in 2026.

  • Caminero hit .264/.311/.535 with 45 home runs and 110 RBIs across 154 games in the 2025 season.

The players

Junior Caminero

A slugger for the Tampa Bay Rays who had a breakout 2025 season, hitting 45 home runs and making his first All-Star team.

Shane McClanahan

A Rays pitcher who missed time in 2025 due to injury issues, including Tommy John surgery and bicep soreness.

Ha-Seong Kim

A former Rays player who was claimed off waivers by the Atlanta Braves in 2025.

Kiley McDaniel

An MLB analyst who projects Caminero's offensive numbers will take a dip in 2026.

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What they’re saying

“Season prediction: Caminero's offensive numbers will be down a bit in 2026, partly because 45 homers is hard to replicate but also because of the aforementioned risk points. His expected wOBA being lower than his actual wOBA last year suggests there was some luck on balls in play.”

— Kiley McDaniel, MLB Analyst (Sporting News)

The takeaway

While Caminero emerged as a key offensive force for the Rays in 2025, the difficulty of replicating a 45-homer season and some statistical indicators of potential luck suggest his production may take a step back in 2026. The Rays will need to find ways to offset any dip in Caminero's numbers as they look to bounce back from the challenges of 2025.