Forecasters Brace for 'Jurassic El Niño' and Its Impact on 2026 Hurricane Season

Scientists warn that a potentially strong El Niño pattern could disrupt hurricane activity in Florida this year.

Apr. 3, 2026 at 4:20pm

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting in muted tones of grey, blue, and green, capturing the overwhelming scale and drama of a stormy ocean under a turbulent sky, with any physical structures or objects barely visible in the distance.As forecasters brace for a potentially disruptive 'Jurassic El Niño', the raw power of the natural world looms large over the Florida coast.Palm Beach Today

As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, meteorologists are closely monitoring the development of what they're calling a 'Jurassic El Niño' in the Pacific Ocean. This powerful El Niño pattern, if it materializes as predicted, could significantly influence the number and intensity of tropical cyclones that impact Florida during the peak storm months.

Why it matters

El Niño is a major factor in seasonal hurricane forecasting, as the climate pattern can suppress storm activity in the Atlantic while enhancing it in the Pacific. A strong 'Jurassic El Niño' could mean fewer hurricanes making landfall in Florida, but experts caution that it's not a guarantee and that some of the state's most devastating storms have occurred during El Niño years.

The details

Climate models are increasingly pointing to the return of El Niño by late summer 2026, with the Climate Prediction Center issuing an El Niño watch in March. Renowned hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach has even coined the term 'Jurassic El Niño' to describe the potentially powerful nature of this event. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which can disrupt wind patterns and reduce wind shear in the Atlantic, making it harder for hurricanes to form and intensify.

  • The Climate Prediction Center will release its next El Niño forecast on April 9, 2026.
  • Colorado State University's senior hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach spoke about the El Niño outlook at the National Hurricane Conference on April 2, 2026.
  • The last El Niño event occurred from May 2023 through March 2024.

The players

Phil Klotzbach

A senior researcher at Colorado State University who specializes in hurricane forecasting and has coined the term 'Jurassic El Niño' to describe the potentially powerful El Niño event expected in 2026.

Bill Patzert

A now-retired NASA climatologist who previously nicknamed the 2015-2016 El Niño event as 'Godzilla' due to its strength.

Jamie Rhome

The Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, who cautions that El Niño is not the only factor that influences hurricane activity and that several other climate drivers play a role.

Michelle L'Heureux

The lead ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, who notes that there are only two examples on record of a La Niña pattern transitioning directly to a strong El Niño.

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What they’re saying

“There is a whole pile of models forecasting El Niño. I think it's a pretty solid bet, not a slam dunk, but a pretty good bet.”

— Phil Klotzbach, Senior Researcher, Colorado State University

“Keep in mind, there is still a 1 in 5 chance that El Niño doesn't form at all.”

— Michelle L'Heureux, Lead ENSO Forecaster, Climate Prediction Center

“People have latched onto one thing, El Niño, but there are other factors. If El Niño was the only driver, it would be a reasonable deduction that it may be a less active season, but there are four or five other drivers that go into it.”

— Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director, National Hurricane Center

What’s next

The Climate Prediction Center will release its next forecast on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern on April 9, 2026, which will provide more clarity on the potential strength and impact of the 'Jurassic El Niño' on the 2026 hurricane season.

The takeaway

The potential development of a 'Jurassic El Niño' in the Pacific Ocean could have significant implications for Florida's 2026 hurricane season, potentially suppressing storm activity in the Atlantic. However, experts caution that El Niño is not the sole factor in hurricane forecasting, and that other climate drivers will also play a role in determining the overall hurricane threat to the state.