GOP Leader Says Mar-a-Lago Flip Won't Hurt Midterm Chances

House Speaker Mike Johnson dismisses Democrat's special election win in Trump's backyard as an "anomaly"

Mar. 27, 2026 at 1:49am

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House Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday that Democrats' recent win in a Florida state race in a district that backed President Donald Trump in 2024 won't shake Republican confidence heading into the midterms. Johnson told Fox News' Bret Baier that the outcome does not signal trouble for Republicans, calling it a "one-off" and an "anomaly" at the state legislative level.

Why it matters

The Mar-a-Lago district flip is seen as a potential bellwether for the midterm elections, as Democrats look to make inroads in Republican strongholds. Johnson's comments suggest the GOP leadership remains bullish on their chances of growing their majority in Congress, despite this high-profile special election loss.

The details

Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Trump-endorsed Republican Jon Maples in the special election for Florida's House District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago. Gregory won 51.19% of the vote to Maples' 48.81%. The district had backed Trump by nearly 11 points in 2024 and in his previous two presidential campaigns. Despite Gregory's victory, Democrats still hold just 34 of the 120 seats in the Florida State House.

  • On March 26, 2026, Democrat Emily Gregory flipped Florida's House District 87, which includes Mar-a-Lago.
  • In 2024, President Donald Trump carried Florida's House District 87 by nearly 11 points.

The players

Mike Johnson

The House Speaker, who said the Mar-a-Lago district flip won't shake Republican confidence heading into the midterms.

Emily Gregory

The Democrat who defeated the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate in the special election for Florida's House District 87.

Jon Maples

The Trump-endorsed Republican candidate who lost the special election for Florida's House District 87 to Democrat Emily Gregory.

Donald Trump

The former president who carried Florida's House District 87 by nearly 11 points in 2024 and in his previous two presidential campaigns.

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What they’re saying

“The president, obviously in his backyard, and he won that district overwhelmingly. As you look at that, do you see a canary in the coal mine about November?”

— Bret Baier, Fox News Host

“I don't at all. In fact, I talked with the president about this after that election result came in and his team. These special elections are a one-off, and they're anomalies. That's why we call them special. There was circumstances in that race at the state legislative level not involved with Congress. I am very bullish about November, very bullish about the mid-terms.”

— Mike Johnson, House Speaker

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.