GOP Faces Uphill Battle in Florida Special Election on Trump's 'Home Turf'

Democrats make major push to flip state house seat in district containing Mar-a-Lago resort.

Mar. 13, 2026 at 3:56pm

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Democrats are making a major push to flip a Florida state house district that includes Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in a special election on March 24. The previous GOP representative won reelection by 19 points, while Trump carried the district by 9 points in 2024. However, Palm Beach leans Democratic overall, setting the stage for a potential upset. The Florida Democratic Party is backing nominee Emily Gregory "with everything we've got," hoping to send a symbolic message ahead of the midterms and help break the GOP's supermajority in the state legislature.

Why it matters

This special election is seen as a key test for both parties ahead of the 2024 midterms. A Democratic win would provide a major symbolic blow to Trump and embolden the party's beleaguered Florida branch, while also helping the nationwide party's midterm momentum. For Republicans, a loss in Trump's 'home turf' would be another brutal setback following recent defeats in other high-profile special elections.

The details

The special election was triggered after the previous GOP representative was elevated to Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller by Gov. Ron DeSantis. While the district has trended Republican in recent elections, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on an affordability message that has resonated with voters in numerous races over the past year. The Republican nominee, former Lake Clarke Shores council member Jon Maples, has the endorsement of former President Trump, but neither he nor his opponent have made the president a central figure of their campaign.

  • The special election will be held on March 24, 2026.
  • The previous GOP representative won reelection in the district by 19 points.
  • Trump carried the district by 9 points in the 2024 presidential election.

The players

Emily Gregory

The Democratic nominee in the special election, backed by the Florida Democratic Party.

Jon Maples

The Republican nominee in the special election, a former Lake Clarke Shores council member and financial planner who has the endorsement of former President Trump.

Nikki Fried

The chair of the Florida Democratic Party, who says the party is backing Gregory "with everything we've got" to "flip the president's home district".

Ron DeSantis

The Republican governor of Florida, who elevated the previous GOP representative to Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller, triggering the special election.

Donald Trump

The former president, whose Mar-a-Lago resort is located in the district where the special election is being held.

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What they’re saying

“Since the Republicans gained a supermajority four years ago, we have not seen any of the affordability crisis issues, any of the housing — anything that would bring real relief to Florida families. And it feels like every session is more targeted on harming Florida families and vulnerable populations.”

— Emily Gregory, Democratic nominee (Politico)

“In those big moments, athletes have to rise to that occasion. And when you get the endorsement of the president, it's a call to rise to the occasion.”

— Jon Maples, Republican nominee (Politico)

What’s next

The special election will be held on March 24, 2026. The outcome will be closely watched as a potential indicator of the political landscape ahead of the 2024 midterm elections.

The takeaway

This special election in Donald Trump's 'home turf' is seen as a crucial test for both parties, with Democrats hoping to deliver a symbolic blow to the former president and Republicans aiming to hold onto a district they've dominated in recent years. The race's affordability-focused messaging and potential to impact the balance of power in the Florida legislature make it a high-stakes contest with national implications.