Scottie Scheffler Favored at 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Can anyone stop the world's top golfer from winning his third API title?

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

The $4 million Arnold Palmer Invitational tees off this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, with World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler leading the field as the heavy favorite. Scheffler, a two-time API champion, is looking to continue his dominant stretch of play on the PGA TOUR. Other top contenders include Rory McIlroy, the 2018 API winner, and defending champion Russell Henley.

Why it matters

The API is one of the PGA TOUR's "signature events" and a coveted title for players. Scottie Scheffler's recent success has made him nearly unbeatable, raising questions about whether anyone can stop his march to victory this week. The tournament also serves as an important tune-up for the upcoming major championships.

The details

Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite at +350 odds, as he looks to add a third API title to his resume. Other players to watch include Robert MacIntyre (+3000 to win without Scheffler and McIlroy), Pierceson Coody (+4500 to win without Scheffler), and Keegan Bradley (+5000 to win without Scheffler and McIlroy). The author has built his betting card around Scheffler, while also taking some value plays on the other contenders.

  • The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place this week, March 4-10, 2026.
  • Scottie Scheffler is the two-time defending champion, having won the API in 2024 and 2025.

The players

Scottie Scheffler

The current World No. 1 golfer and two-time Arnold Palmer Invitational champion.

Rory McIlroy

The World No. 2 golfer and 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational champion.

Russell Henley

The defending champion of the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Robert MacIntyre

A rising Scottish golfer who has been playing well on the PGA TOUR and worldwide.

Pierceson Coody

A 26-year-old American golfer with a strong ball-striking game and potential to win a big event.

Keegan Bradley

A veteran American golfer with a history of success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“At this point, you almost need to get lucky for Scottie Scheffler not to win a tournament. He's that good.”

— Geoff Clark, Betting Analyst (Outkick.com)

“Essentially, MacIntyre plays well all over the world, at any course, and he doesn't have a weak club in the bag. Bobby Mac is an above-average driver, great with his long irons, has good touch around the greens, and can putt his way to victory.”

— Geoff Clark, Betting Analyst (Outkick.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.