Democrats See Narrow Opening in Florida's 2026 Races

New poll shows Republicans holding single-digit leads in early matchups for governor and Senate

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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A new poll from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab suggests Democrats may have a narrow opening in Florida's 2026 elections for governor and U.S. Senate, with Republican candidates holding single-digit leads in early potential matchups. While Republicans still hold a clear advantage in the Sunshine State, the margins appear smaller than in recent years, giving Democrats hope in the key elections.

Why it matters

Florida has shifted decisively toward the GOP in recent years, with Republicans now holding a significant voter registration advantage. But Democrats, energized by their results in the November 2025 off-year elections and polling showing vulnerability for Republicans and President Donald Trump, see an opening in Florida that they have not seen in years.

The details

The poll found Republican candidates holding single-digit leads in early potential matchups in the governor and Senate races. In the governor's race, Republican Congressman Byron Donalds leads former Republican Congressman David Jolly 42% to 36%, and leads Democratic Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings 43% to 36%. In the Senate race, Republican Senator Ashley Moody leads retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman 45% to 38%, and leads state Representative Angie Nixon 46% to 38%. However, the large share of undecided voters leaves room for the races to shift as candidates become better known.

  • The primary elections are scheduled for August 18, 2026.
  • The general election will take place on November 3, 2026.

The players

Byron Donalds

A Republican congressman from southwest Florida and an ally of President Donald Trump.

David Jolly

A former Republican congressman who later became a Democrat.

Jerry Demings

The Democratic mayor of Orange County and a former Orlando police chief and county sheriff.

Ashley Moody

The Republican incumbent U.S. Senator, previously serving as Florida's attorney general.

Alexander Vindman

A retired Army lieutenant colonel known for his role in Trump's first impeachment inquiry, running as a Democrat for U.S. Senate.

Angie Nixon

A progressive state representative from Jacksonville, running as a Democrat for U.S. Senate.

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What they’re saying

“Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn't appear as strong as in previous years, which is not unusual given that the president's party often struggles in midterm elections.”

— Sean Freeder, Director of the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab and professor of political science (University of North Florida press release)

“This is the free state of Florida, and as your next governor, it will remain the free state of Florida.”

— Byron Donalds (Campaign rally in Bonita Springs, Florida)

“If you vote for me, it's a vote for a new style of leadership. It's a vote for change. It's a vote for democracy. It's a vote for the right person at the right time.”

— Jerry Demings (Campaign launch rally in Orlando)

What’s next

The primary elections are scheduled for August 18, 2026, when voters will choose the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor, U.S. Senate and other offices. The general election will take place on November 3, 2026, during the nationwide midterm elections.

The takeaway

While Republicans still hold a clear advantage in Florida, the new poll suggests Democrats may be closer to contention in the state's 2026 elections than in recent cycles. The relatively large share of undecided voters leaves room for the races to shift as candidates become better known and the campaign develops.