Homebuilders Predict Resale Prices to Fall in 2026

Sellers reluctant to lower prices will have to adjust as affordability challenges persist, experts say.

Published on Feb. 21, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Homebuilders are forecasting that individual home sellers will soon have to lower their price expectations in 2026 as affordability challenges continue, according to comments made by the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders at the International Builders Show in Orlando, Florida. Homebuilders have already been slashing prices and offering incentives to offload new properties as demand has shrunk due to skyrocketing home prices and elevated borrowing costs.

Why it matters

This prediction highlights the ongoing struggles with housing affordability in the U.S., where the typical home price is now nearly 5 times higher than the typical household's income, well above the historical norm of 3 times. As buyers continue to be priced out of the market, homebuilders and individual sellers will need to adjust their expectations to meet demand.

The details

According to the NAHB's chief economist Robert Dietz, resale home prices will need to come down in 2026 in order to improve affordability, as existing homeowners have not yet gone through the same "price discovery" that homebuilders have been doing since 2022. Dietz pointed to data showing the typical home price is now 4.9 times higher than the typical household's income, compared to the historical norm of 3 times. This makes it much harder for younger households to save up for a down payment. While homebuilders have been slashing prices and offering incentives, many individual sellers are reluctant to accept less than what they paid at the peak of the pandemic, leading to a growing gap between new and existing home prices.

  • On Tuesday, Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, made these predictions at the International Builders Show in Orlando, Florida.
  • In October 2025, the median price of a newly built home was lower than the median asking price of an existing home, at $392,300 against $409,200.

The players

Robert Dietz

The chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders.

Danielle Hale

The chief economist at Realtor.com, who expects home prices to continue rising slightly through 2026, though at a slower pace than previous years.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“We expect in most markets this year, resale prices to go down in order to improve affordability conditions, because existing homeowners now have to do the price discovery that builders have been doing since 2022, and they haven't done it yet.”

— Robert Dietz, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders

“Looking at asking prices, our expectation is that they'll be up slightly for the year.”

— Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com

What’s next

Homebuilders and real estate experts will continue to monitor home price trends and affordability conditions throughout 2026 to see if individual sellers adjust their expectations as predicted.

The takeaway

This forecast highlights the ongoing housing affordability crisis in the U.S., where home prices have far outpaced income growth. As buyers struggle, both homebuilders and individual sellers will need to adapt their pricing strategies to meet current market demands.