New FL Gubernatorial Poll: Donalds Up by 6 vs. Jolly, 7 Over Demings

Republicans Donalds and Moody Hold Single-Digit Leads in Key Florida Races

Published on Mar. 4, 2026

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A new poll from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab shows Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody leading their potential Democratic opponents in the Florida gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races. Donalds leads former Republican Congressman David Jolly by 6 points and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings by 7 points, while Moody leads former National Security Council aide Alexander Vindman by 7 points and Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon by 8 points.

Why it matters

The poll results suggest that Republicans still hold an advantage with Florida voters, though the margin appears narrower than in previous years. This could signal a tightening of the races as the midterm elections approach, with both parties vying for control of key statewide offices.

The details

The survey of 786 likely Florida midterm voters was conducted between February 21 and March 2. It shows Donalds, a U.S. Representative from Naples endorsed by former President Trump, leading Jolly 42% to 36% and Demings 43% to 36%. Moody, the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator, leads Vindman 45% to 38% and Nixon 46% to 38%. The poll also found that former President Trump is slightly underwater in Florida, with 45% viewing him favorably and 48% unfavorably.

  • The poll was conducted between February 21 and March 2, 2026.
  • The Florida gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races are slated for the fall of 2026.

The players

Byron Donalds

A U.S. Representative from Naples, Florida who has been endorsed for governor by former President Donald Trump.

David Jolly

A former Republican U.S. Representative who has since switched parties and is running as a Democrat for governor.

Jerry Demings

The Orange County Mayor, running as a Democrat for governor.

Ashley Moody

The incumbent Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, running for re-election.

Alexander Vindman

A former National Security Council aide, running as a Democrat for U.S. Senate.

Angie Nixon

A Jacksonville state Representative, running as a Democrat for U.S. Senate.

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What they’re saying

“At least at this stage in these races, voter choice is much more about partisanship than candidate identity. Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn't yet appear as strong as in previous years, perhaps unsurprising given that the party of the president usually struggles more in midterm elections.”

— Dr. Sean Freeder, PORL director and professor of political science (University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab)

What’s next

The results of the Florida gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races will be closely watched as key indicators of the political landscape heading into the 2028 presidential election.

The takeaway

While Republicans maintain an edge in Florida, the narrowing margins suggest a potentially tighter battle for control of the state's top offices in the upcoming midterm elections.