Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is $47,960 the Macro Bottom?

On-chain data suggests a critical support level that could signal a potential market bottom.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 4:25am

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An extreme close-up of intricate, metallic banking machinery and mechanisms, conveying the complex infrastructure and security of financial institutions without depicting any literal currency or symbols.As Bitcoin navigates the current bear market, the response to a critical on-chain support level could shape the cryptocurrency's trajectory in the coming months.Today in Miami

Bitcoin's on-chain data is providing valuable insights into the current bear market. Renowned analyst Ali Martinez has identified a crucial support level at $47,960, based on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric. This level is seen as the ultimate price floor where long-term holders are likely to distribute their coins, potentially signaling a market bottom. The analysis raises important questions about Bitcoin's future trajectory and the significance of this on-chain indicator.

Why it matters

The CVDD metric offers a unique perspective on Bitcoin's market dynamics, highlighting the behavior of long-term holders. If Bitcoin were to dip to the $47,960 level, it could act as a structural foundation for the market, potentially leading to a major rebound. This analysis is particularly relevant given the current bearish sentiment and geopolitical tensions surrounding the cryptocurrency market.

The details

Martinez's analysis focuses on the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), an on-chain metric that estimates Bitcoin's long-term price floor by tracking the cumulative value of 'Coin Days Destroyed' over time. Coin Days Destroyed measures the holding period of coins before they are spent, with older coins having more days destroyed upon any on-chain movement. The CVDD represents the price level at which long-term holders are likely to distribute their coins, introducing fresh capital through new participants and creating a new cost basis. According to Martinez, the current CVDD price floor is at $47,960, which he considers the ultimate support zone.

  • Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,683, leaving a significant downside potential to the CVDD floor.

The players

Ali Martinez

A renowned analyst who has identified the $47,960 CVDD price floor as a critical support level for Bitcoin.

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What they’re saying

“This on-chain data provides a unique insight into Bitcoin's potential bottom. The CVDD metric is a powerful tool for understanding the market's dynamics and the behavior of long-term holders.”

— Francesca Jacobs Ret, Author

What’s next

The market's response to this critical support level will be a fascinating development, and it's one that could shape Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.

The takeaway

This analysis of Bitcoin's on-chain data offers a compelling perspective on the potential support level and the importance of long-term holder behavior. While it's not a guarantee of a market recovery, it provides valuable insights that could be crucial for investors navigating the current bear market.