2026 Hurricane Forecast Calls for Slightly Below Average Activity

CSU researchers project 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.

Apr. 10, 2026 at 10:27pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A vast, atmospheric landscape painting depicting a massive hurricane system dominating the horizon, with dramatic clouds and turbulent lighting obscuring the scale of the natural disaster.The looming presence of a powerful hurricane system serves as a sobering reminder of nature's raw, unpredictable force, even in a season forecast to be slightly less active.Today in Miami

Colorado State University's hurricane research team has released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting slightly below-average activity compared to the 30-year norm. Researchers cite an expected El Niño pattern in the Pacific as the main factor behind the quieter outlook, though they caution that it only takes one major landfall to make a season active.

Why it matters

Seasonal hurricane forecasts help coastal communities and emergency management agencies prepare for potential threats, even in years when overall activity is expected to be lower than average. While the CSU outlook calls for a relatively calm 2026 season, forecasters stress that these predictions do not indicate where or when storms will make landfall, and that a single devastating hurricane can still occur.

The details

According to the CSU forecast, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to see 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). This is slightly below the 30-year average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The team cites a likely powerful El Niño pattern developing in the Pacific as the primary factor behind the quieter outlook, as El Niño conditions tend to disrupt Atlantic storm formation through increased wind shear and sinking air. However, forecasters warn that seasonal predictions do not guarantee where or when storms will strike, and that even a slow hurricane season can still produce a devastating landfall, as seen with Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
  • The CSU hurricane forecast was released on April 10, 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

A leading research institution that has pioneered long-range hurricane forecasting, providing annual outlooks for the Atlantic basin.

El Niño

A periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can significantly influence global weather patterns, including suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What’s next

Forecasters will continue to monitor conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic as the 2026 hurricane season approaches, providing more detailed outlooks and storm track predictions as the summer months arrive.

The takeaway

While the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly below average in activity, coastal communities must remain vigilant and prepared, as a single major hurricane landfall can still have devastating impacts regardless of the overall forecast.