Experts Warn of Incoming El Niño and Its Potential Impacts

University of Miami researchers analyze how the climate phenomenon could affect the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and weather patterns across the U.S.

Apr. 8, 2026 at 7:44pm

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A sweeping, atmospheric landscape painting depicting the vast, sublime scale of the Pacific Ocean, with swirling currents and dramatic lighting that dwarfs any physical structures or objects within the scene, conveying the powerful natural forces at play.As the Pacific Ocean warms, experts warn of the potential for a powerful El Niño event that could reshape weather patterns across the United States.Today in Miami

University of Miami experts are closely monitoring the development of an El Niño climate pattern, which is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Experts say El Niño can suppress tropical storm activity in the Atlantic while bringing wetter and cooler conditions to the Southwest and drier weather to the Pacific Northwest. However, the timing and strength of the El Niño will determine its exact impact on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season and weather patterns across the country.

Why it matters

El Niño is a major climate driver that can significantly influence weather patterns and natural disaster risks across the United States. Understanding how El Niño may develop and its potential impacts is crucial for communities to prepare and mitigate the effects, whether that's bracing for a quieter hurricane season or preparing for increased flood risks on the West Coast.

The details

According to the latest outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, there is an increased chance of a strong El Niño event developing later this year. El Niño is known to increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, which can tear apart developing tropical storms. However, the timing of the El Niño's onset and its exact strength will determine how much it suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. Other factors, like the Madden-Julian Oscillation, can also influence storm development during the season. While artificial intelligence and machine learning are being used to enhance weather forecasting, predicting El Niño events is still challenging due to the limited historical data available.

  • Currently, there's about a 62 percent chance that an El Niño will develop by the summer.
  • By the fall, there is about a one-in-three chance we'll have a very strong El Niño event.

The players

Benjamin Thomas

A Miami resident who closely follows tropical storm season outlooks and is hoping an El Niño can help decrease the number of hurricanes.

Amy Becker

A University of Miami researcher who says most climate models are predicting an El Niño for later this year.

Ben Kirtman

A University of Miami researcher who explains that the timing of the Madden-Julian Oscillation can also impact hurricane season activity.

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What they’re saying

“Anything that can help decrease the number of hurricanes would be a godsend.”

— Benjamin Thomas, Miami resident

“Currently, there's about a 62 percent chance that an El Niño will develop by the summer, and then a little bit stronger chance by the fall, with about a one-in-three chance we'll have a very strong event.”

— Amy Becker, University of Miami researcher

“If the timing of the enhanced wet phase of the MJO coincides with hurricane season, then we could expect more storm activity.”

— Ben Kirtman, University of Miami researcher

What’s next

Researchers will be closely monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures in the weeks ahead to help gauge the strength of the developing El Niño.

The takeaway

The potential development of a strong El Niño this year could have far-reaching impacts on weather patterns across the United States, from suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity to bringing wetter and cooler conditions to the Southwest. However, the exact timing and strength of the El Niño will determine its full effects, underscoring the need for continued monitoring and preparation by communities.