Allies Recalibrate as War with Iran Deepens Under Trump

Diplomats no longer ask how to influence Donald Trump, but how long they must wait out his presidency.

Mar. 22, 2026 at 11:18am

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As the war with Iran intensifies, America's allies are recalibrating their approach - not around strategy, but around the unpredictable leadership of President Trump. Across allied capitals, officials are no longer asking how to influence Trump, but how to outlast him, with the expectation that the next meaningful shift in U.S. foreign policy will come from the American electoral calendar rather than negotiation or recalibration.

Why it matters

This shift in approach by U.S. allies marks a profound change, as they have previously invested heavily in cultivating close ties with Trump in the hopes of shaping outcomes. However, the belief has now taken hold that there is no reliable mechanism - personal, institutional, or diplomatic - for steering a presidency that resists constraint. As the conflict with Iran deepens, allies must now brace for the continuation of Trump's policies rather than attempt to reshape them.

The details

The war with Iran appears to have been premised on the assumption that a limited use of force could achieve discrete objectives without escalation. But as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exposed, wars resist containment, and the conflict now carries systemic implications extending well beyond the immediate theater. For NATO, this presents a dilemma, as there is little appetite among European members for deeper military involvement, yet the economic stakes tied to energy supply narrow the space for abstention.

  • The midterm elections are seen as a geopolitical horizon, the moment when Trump's power might begin to narrow, if not in formal authority then in political leverage.
  • Election Day is circled months in advance as the most consequential date in the current geopolitical calendar.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States, whose unpredictable leadership and governing style focused on speed over deliberation has shaped the current conflict with Iran.

Marco Rubio

The Secretary of State, who has taken on an expanded role operating at the center of strategic decision-making, with an approach that is more assertive and aligned with Trump's instincts.

Keir Starmer

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whose government has invested heavily in cultivating ties with Trump in the hopes of shaping outcomes, but has now seen the futility of that approach.

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What they’re saying

“Trump can't be reasoned with anymore.”

— Diplomatic source

“I may have some skill in writing about 21st-century conflicts, but I am not eager to be in the center of one again. I haven't felt like this since September 2001.”

— American acquaintance

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.