Trump Administration Cripples Trade with Cuba, Raising Fears of Regime Change

Supplies of oil, food, and other goods to the island have collapsed as the U.S. escalates pressure on the Communist Party leadership.

Mar. 19, 2026 at 2:07pm

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The Trump administration has crippled trade with Cuba without formally declaring a blockade, disrupting the lives of the island's 11 million residents who are enduring massive blackouts and a breakdown in medical care due to a lack of fuel. The sudden halt in trade has taken place without the White House reapplying restrictions on exports to Cuba, but the U.S. has escalated rhetoric and actions targeting the Cuban government, raising fears of a potential military intervention to force regime change.

Why it matters

The Cuban Communist Party has shown remarkable resilience over six decades in power, withstanding previous U.S. hostilities and calamities of its own making. However, the current crisis triggered by the Trump administration's actions poses a grave threat, potentially leading to a military intervention to force regime change, which could have significant humanitarian consequences for the Cuban people.

The details

Without declaring a formal blockade, the Trump administration has already crippled trade with Cuba. In March, supplies of oil, food, and other goods to the island collapsed, with no foreign-originating tankers arriving. The volume of port calls fell to just 11 in March, the lowest since 2017. This has disrupted the lives of Cubans, leading to massive blackouts and a breakdown in medical care due to a lack of fuel. The U.S. has not reapplied restrictions on exports to Cuba, but has escalated rhetoric and actions targeting the Cuban government, including suggesting a 'friendly takeover' of the country.

  • In March 2026, supplies of oil, food, and other goods to Cuba collapsed, with no foreign-originating tankers arriving.
  • In January 2026, the Trump administration threatened tariffs on any country that supplies oil to Cuba, alarming officials in Mexico.
  • On January 3, 2026, the U.S. military ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and the U.S. declared it would block all Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba.

The players

President Donald Trump

The President of the United States who has escalated pressure on the Cuban Communist Party leadership, suggesting a 'friendly takeover' of the country.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel

The current President of Cuba, who has condemned the U.S. 'fuel blockade' and stated that Cuba will defend the homeland with its 'last drop of blood'.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio

The U.S. Secretary of State who has started to walk back some of the administration's threats, allowing U.S. companies to send fuel to private businesses in Cuba to encourage the development of the nation's small private sector.

John Felder

The owner of Premier Automotive Export, a Maryland-based business that has been selling electric cars and scooters to Cuba since 2012, who says most Cubans want change but fear being controlled by the United States.

Ian Ralby

The head of I.R. Consilium, a U.S.-based consultancy focused on maritime security, who said the U.S. aggressiveness will not endear Trump to Cubans long eager for change.

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What they’re saying

“Every Cuban resident is suffering the acute inaccessibility to fuel and all the knock-on consequences in terms of access to food, hospitals and free movement.”

— Ian Ralby, Head of I.R. Consilium

“Cuba is a free, independent and sovereign state — nobody dictates what we do. Cuba does not attack; we are the victims of U.S. attacks for 66 years and we will prepare ourselves to defend the homeland with our last drop of blood.”

— President Miguel Díaz-Canel

“The reason why those industries have not flourished in Cuba is because the regime has not allowed them to flourish.”

— Secretary of State Marco Rubio

“U.S. policies have created the most resilient people in the world and yet all they want to do is buy things in Miami like you and me. They want change but they don't want to be controlled by the United States.”

— John Felder, Owner of Premier Automotive Export

What’s next

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The takeaway

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