Intelligence Leak Undermines Trump's Claims of 'Winning' Iran War

U.S. intelligence reports find the Iranian government remains largely intact and in control despite ongoing U.S. and Israeli assault.

Published on Mar. 12, 2026

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A new intelligence leak has undercut former President Donald Trump's claims that the U.S. has 'won' its war against Iran. According to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence reports, the Iranian government remains largely intact and in control of the population, despite the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military assault. The reports suggest a protracted conflict rather than the 'unconditional surrender' Trump had demanded.

Why it matters

Trump has repeatedly boasted about the success of the U.S. military campaign against Iran, but the intelligence leaks suggest his claims of victory are premature and misleading. This raises questions about the true state of the conflict and the potential for a prolonged and costly war if the U.S. and its allies maintain the assault on Iran.

The details

The intelligence reports found that the Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top military officials, remain in power despite initial U.S. strikes. Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has taken over as the new supreme leader but has not indicated any willingness to surrender. The reports also cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish militias to effectively overthrow the regime, citing a lack of weapons and manpower. The growing U.S. casualties, including traumatic brain injuries from a recent attack, have also compounded pressure on the administration.

  • On March 2, Trump refused to rule out deploying U.S. ground troops in Iran.
  • In the first week of the war, the Pentagon reported the U.S. had spent $11.3 billion on the conflict.

The players

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who has repeatedly claimed victory in the war against Iran, despite intelligence reports suggesting the conflict is far from over.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The supreme leader of Iran, who was initially reported killed in the first day of the war but whose son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has taken over leadership and shown no signs of surrendering.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has taken over as the new supreme leader of Iran after his father's reported death, and has not indicated any willingness to surrender.

Iranian Kurdish Militias

Militia groups based in Iraq that the U.S. is relying on in part to try to overthrow the Iranian regime, but U.S. intelligence reports have expressed skepticism about their chances of success due to a lack of weapons and manpower.

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What they’re saying

“We've already won in many ways. We haven't won enough. We go forward, more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”

— Donald Trump (CBS News)

“It's not protracted. We're not allowing mission creep. The president has set a very specific mission to accomplish, and our job is to unrelentingly deliver that.”

— Pete Hegseth (Reuters)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This intelligence leak undermines Trump's claims of victory in the Iran war, raising serious questions about the true state of the conflict and the potential for a prolonged and costly battle if the U.S. and its allies maintain the assault on Iran. The growing U.S. casualties and doubts about the ability of Iranian Kurdish militias to overthrow the regime further complicate the path to 'unconditional surrender' that Trump has demanded.