El Niño Forecast to Arrive by Summer, Potentially Suppressing 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA predicts El Niño climate pattern will develop midway through hurricane season, historically reducing tropical activity in the Atlantic.

Published on Feb. 12, 2026

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According to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an El Niño climate pattern is on track to develop by the middle of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions have historically suppressed hurricane and tropical development in the Atlantic, with fewer storms and hurricanes on average compared to La Niña years.

Why it matters

El Niño's arrival could significantly impact the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, potentially leading to fewer storms and hurricanes compared to recent hyperactive seasons driven by La Niña. This could provide some relief for communities still recovering from the impacts of major hurricanes in recent years, but also raises questions about how climate change may be altering historical ENSO patterns and their effects.

The details

El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that describes changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation. El Niño brings warmer conditions, while La Niña brings cooler conditions. The transition from La Niña to El Niño is expected to occur midway through the 2026 hurricane season, with the warmer waters and enhanced rising air across the Pacific creating "hostile" upper-level winds that can disrupt tropical development in the Atlantic.

  • Throughout the winter, conditions remained in a La Niña state.
  • NOAA has indicated the ENSO has begun the transition toward a neutral state, with signals that El Niño will arrive just in time for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

The players

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

The U.S. government agency that studies the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

A climate pattern that describes natural changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation that can greatly influence global weather.

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What’s next

Meteorologists will continue to monitor the development of the El Niño pattern and its potential impacts on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as the year progresses.

The takeaway

The forecast arrival of El Niño conditions by the middle of the 2026 hurricane season could provide some relief from hyperactive storm activity in the Atlantic, but also highlights the complex and evolving relationship between climate patterns and tropical cyclone development.